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RecruitingNCT07739004PEDTRIAGEUpdated Aug 5, 2026

Triage Performance and Physiological Predictors of Serious Illness in Febrile Children in the Pediatric Emergency Department

An observational study in Fever, Triage and Pediatric Emergency Medicine, sponsored by TC Erciyes University. Recruiting at 10 sites in Turkey (Türkiye). Open to participants aged 0 Years to 18 Years. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-08-05.

Sponsored by TC Erciyes University · Observational

From the registry’s dates

  • Started Jul 2026; still recruiting 3 months later.
Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
3,000
Ages
0 Years to 18 Years
Sex
All
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Study summary

This multicenter prospective observational cohort study evaluates how well the initial triage category assigned by the Turkish Ministry of Health three-level color-coded triage system (Red-Yellow-Green) predicts serious clinical outcomes in children aged 0-18 years who present with fever to pediatric emergency departments. The study additionally assesses whether physiological parameters recorded at triage (heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, capillary refill time, AVPU level of consciousness, and general appearance) provide independent and incremental prognostic value beyond the assigned triage category. Ten centers across Turkey will enroll consecutive eligible febrile children over a 3-month period. Routine clinical care and triage decisions are not altered by the study. The primary outcome is a composite serious clinical outcome. The study is reported in accordance with the STROBE and TRIPOD statements.

Read the detailed description

Design: Prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study. Setting: 10 pediatric emergency departments in Turkey; Erciyes University is the coordinating center. Population: consecutive children aged 0-18 years presenting with fever (>=38.0 C at triage or history of fever within the preceding 24 hours). Trauma presentations, elective visits, records with missing triage data, and re-attendances within 72 hours for the same episode are excluded (only the first visit is included). Physiological parameters are recorded on a standardized triage form and are NOT used to change the triage decision. Heart rate is modeled as a continuous variable with age-based z-scores (Fleming reference ranges), with body temperature always included as a covariate to distinguish fever-related from pathological tachycardia. Sample size: assuming a serious-outcome (composite) event rate of \~3%, approximately 3000 children (\~90 events) are targeted (\~300 per center over 3 months), following Riley et al. (BMJ 2020) criteria (target R2>=0.15, calibration slope>=0.90) in addition to the EPV>=10 rule. A pilot evaluation at the end of the first month recalculates the true event rate. Analysis: Triage performance is summarized with sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+ and LR- with 95% CIs. A pre-specified 3-step mixed-effects logistic regression (centers as random effect) compares Model 1 (triage category only), Model 2 (+ physiological parameters and temperature), and Model 3 (+ laboratory variables in the tested subgroup). Discrimination (ROC/AUC, DeLong test, NRI, IDI) and calibration (calibration curve and slope, O/E ratio) are reported. Missing data are handled by multiple imputation (m=20).

02

Conditions studied

  • Fever
  • Triage
  • Pediatric Emergency Medicine
  • Serious Bacterial Infection
  • Sepsis

Keywords

  • pediatric triage
  • febrile children
  • clinical prediction model
  • emergency department
  • physiological parameters
  • undertriage
03

In context

Fever

438 studies on the registry are indexed under Fever; 55 are open to participants now.

This study's planned enrollment of 3,000 is above the median of 408 across 140 observational studies indexed under Fever.

Browse Fever studies →

Lead sponsor

TC Erciyes University is the lead sponsor of 349 studies on the registry; 74 are open to participants now.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

04

Who can participate

Ages eligible
0 Years to 18 Years
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
No
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

Consecutive children aged 0-18 years presenting with fever to the participating pediatric emergency departments during the study period.

Go through the criteria one by one — yes, no or not sure — and take the list to your doctor or the study team. Kept in this browser only.

Inclusion criteria

  • Age 0-18 years
  • Presentation to the pediatric emergency department
  • Fever >=38.0 C at triage OR history of fever within the preceding 24 hours

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Presentation due to trauma
  • Elective visits
  • Missing triage data
  • Re-attendance within 72 hours for the same episode (only the first visit is included)
05

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
3,000 participants (estimated)
Patient registry
No

Groups and cohorts

  • Febrile children in the pediatric emergency department

    Children aged 0-18 years presenting with fever (\>=38.0 C at triage or history of fever within the preceding 24 hours) to a participating pediatric emergency department during the 3-month study period. All undergo routine triage with the Ministry of Health three-level color-coded system; triage decisions and clinical care are not altered by the study.

    Diagnostic Test: Ministry of Health three-level color-coded triage

Interventions

  • Diagnostic testMinistry of Health three-level color-coded triage

    At presentation, each child is assigned a triage category (Red, Yellow, or Green) by the triage nurse using the Turkish Ministry of Health three-level color-coded system, and physiological parameters (heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, capillary refill time, AVPU level of consciousness, and general appearance) are recorded on a standardized triage form. This reflects routine care and is not modified for the study.

06

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Composite serious clinical outcome

    Presence of at least one of: intensive care unit admission; invasive or non-invasive mechanical ventilation; vasopressor/inotropic therapy; culture- or sterile-body-fluid-confirmed invasive bacterial infection; 30-day mortality.

    Time frame: 30 Dys

Secondary outcomes

  1. Hospital admission with intravenous antibiotics

    Hospital admission with intravenous antibiotic treatment for at least 24 hours.

    Time frame: Up to 30 days

  2. Sepsis protocol activation

    Activation of an institutional sepsis protocol during the index emergency department visit.

    Time frame: Index ED visit (day 1)

  3. Intravenous fluid bolus of at least 20 mL/kg

    Administration of an intravenous fluid bolus of at least 20 mL/kg during the index emergency department visit.

    Time frame: Index ED visit (day 1)

  4. Unplanned re-attendance with admission

    Re-attendance within 72 hours followed by admission to a ward or intensive care unit.

    Time frame: 72 hours

  5. All-cause hospital ward admission

    Admission to a hospital ward for any cause.

    Time frame: Index ED visit (day 1)

  6. Undertriage rate

    Proportion of Green-triaged patients who develop the primary composite outcome.

    Time frame: 30 days

  7. Overtriage rate

    Proportion of Red-triaged patients who do not develop the primary composite outcome.

    Time frame: 30 days

07

Study locations

10 of 10 sites recruiting
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References and documents

Publications

  • Fleming S, Thompson M, Stevens R, Heneghan C, Pluddemann A, Maconochie I, Tarassenko L, Mant D. Normal ranges of heart rate and respiratory rate in children from birth to 18 years of age: a systematic review of observational studies. Lancet. 2011 Mar 19;377(9770):1011-8. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62226-X. PubMed 21411136 ↗
  • Riley RD, Ensor J, Snell KIE, Harrell FE Jr, Martin GP, Reitsma JB, Moons KGM, Collins G, van Smeden M. Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model. BMJ. 2020 Mar 18;368:m441. doi: 10.1136/bmj.m441. No abstract available. PubMed 32188600 ↗
  • von Elm E, Altman DG, Egger M, Pocock SJ, Gotzsche PC, Vandenbroucke JP; STROBE Initiative. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement: guidelines for reporting observational studies. Lancet. 2007 Oct 20;370(9596):1453-7. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)61602-X. PubMed 18064739 ↗
  • Collins GS, Reitsma JB, Altman DG, Moons KG. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement. Ann Intern Med. 2015 Jan 6;162(1):55-63. doi: 10.7326/M14-0697. PubMed 25560714 ↗

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No — Individual participant data will not be shared publicly. De-identified data may be made available from the coordinating center on reasonable request, subject to approval by the coordinating ethics committee and a data-sharing agreement, in accordance with institutional and national data-protection regulations.

09

Timeline

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
ElapsedEstimatedEstimated, not yet reachedSimilar studies: half by the dot; the band is the middle halfHalf of similar studies reached it by the dot; the band is the middle half, from a quarter to three quarters

Started Jul 2026 (actual). Primary completion is estimated for Nov 2026, 3 months after the start.

Of 51 non-industry observational studies under Fever, half reached primary completion within 22 months of starting (the median), counting those still running; a quarter within 8 and three quarters within 47. This study's planned 3 months is below that.

Counting every sponsor, half of 61 studies reached it within 22 months; a quarter within 8 and three quarters within 36.

How these figures are worked out, and which studies are left out of them.

Registered
Jul 27, 2026
First posted
Jul 31, 2026
StartActual
Jul 28, 2026
Primary completionEst.
Nov 1, 2026
CompletionEst.
Dec 1, 2026
Last update
Aug 5, 2026
What these dates mean
Start.
When the first participant enrolled; while estimated, when the study expects to open to recruitment.
Primary completion.
When the last participant was examined or treated to collect data for the study's main question, its primary outcome. A study that stopped early gives the date its data collection stopped.
Completion.
When the last participant's last visit took place, for every outcome, secondary ones and side effects included: the end of the study. Often later than primary completion, sometimes the same day.
Actual and Est.
Actual means the registry says the date has happened. Est. (estimated) is a date the sponsor plans or expects. It can still move, and the sponsor is expected to change it to actual once it has passed.
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Aug 5, 2026, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
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Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT07739004
Collaborators
Kayseri City Hospital, Adana City Training and Research Hospital, Cukurova University, Akdeniz University, Manisa Celal Bayar University, Eskisehir Osmangazi University, Lütfi Kırdar City Hospital, Dokuz Eylul University, Tokat Gaziosmanpasa University
Responsible party
Yılmaz Seçilmiş (Associate Professor, TC Erciyes University) — Principal investigator
First posted
Jul 31, 2026
Start date
Jul 28, 2026
Primary completion
Nov 1, 2026 (estimated)
Completion
Dec 1, 2026 (estimated)
Last update
Aug 5, 2026

Study contacts

Yilmaz Secilmis, MD
Contact
yilmazsecilmis@erciyes.edu.tr
+905063013174
Yilmaz Secilmis
principal investigator · TC Erciyes University

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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