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CompletedNCT07709923Doesn't existUpdated Jul 17, 2026

Predictive Model For Anastomotic Leakage After Colorectal Cancer Surgery

An observational study in Colorectal (Colon or Rectal) Cancer, Leak, Anastomotic and Surgery Complications, sponsored by University of Foggia. Completed at 1 site in Italy. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-07-17.

Sponsored by University of Foggia · Observational

Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Cross-sectional
Enrollment
117
Sex
All
01

Study summary

This pilot study aimed to develop a simplified early postoperative model for AL risk stratification using readily available clinical and laboratory variables.

Read the detailed description

This retrospective single-centre cohort included 117 patients who underwent colorectal cancer resection with primary anastomosis between January 2024 and December 2025. Patients with protective stomas or incomplete data were excluded. Demographic, clinical, surgical, and first-postoperative-day laboratory variables were analysed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with AL and to assess model performance.

02

Conditions studied

  • Colorectal (Colon or Rectal) Cancer
  • Leak, Anastomotic
  • Surgery Complications
03

Who can participate

Ages eligible
Child (0–17), Adult (18–64), Older adult (65+)
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
Yes
Sampling method
Probability sample

Study population

Colorectal cancer patients who developed an anastomotic fistula after surgery

Inclusion criteria

  1. colorectal cancer resection
  2. construction of a primary anastomosis
  3. availability of clinical and laboratory data from the first postoperative day

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  1. staged procedures without primary anastomosis
  2. Hartmann's procedure
  3. protective stoma at the index operation
  4. incomplete data for the variables required for model construction.
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Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Cross-sectional
Enrollment
117 participants (actual)
Target follow-up
2 Years
Patient registry
Yes

Groups and cohorts

  • Patients underwent elective colorectal surgery

    number of leakage

05

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Number of Participants Who Developed Clinically Significant Anastomotic Leakage Requiring Surgical Reintervention and/or Stoma Creation

    Number of participants who developed clinically significant anastomotic leakage after colorectal cancer surgery. Anastomotic leakage was defined as an anastomotic defect confirmed by clinical, radiological, intraoperative, or postoperative findings requiring surgical reintervention and/or stoma creation.

    Time frame: 2 years

Secondary outcomes

  1. Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) of the Predictive Model

    Discriminative ability of the simplified logistic regression model for predicting clinically significant anastomotic leakage

    Time frame: 2 years

  2. Sensitivity of the Predictive Model for Clinically Significant Anastomotic Leakage

    Sensitivity of the predictive model in identifying participants who developed clinically significant anastomotic leakage.

    Time frame: 2 years

  3. Specificity of the Predictive Model for Clinically Significant Anastomotic Leakage

    Specificity of the predictive model in identifying participants who did not develop clinically significant anastomotic leakage.

    Time frame: 2 years

  4. Brier Score of the Predictive Model

    Calibration performance of the predictive model assessed using the Brier score.

    Time frame: 2 yers

  5. Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test of the Predictive Model

    Calibration performance of the predictive model assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

    Time frame: 2 years

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Study locations

1 site
  • Giovanna Pavone
    Foggia, 71122, Italy
07

References and documents

Study documents

  • Study protocol · May 15, 2026

Documents are hosted by the registry — open the source record to download them.

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No

08

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT07709923
Lead sponsor
University of Foggia
Responsible party
Giovanna Pavone (General Surgeon, MD, University of Foggia) — Principal investigator
First posted
Jul 17, 2026
Start date
Jan 1, 2024
Primary completion
Dec 31, 2024
Completion
Dec 31, 2025
Last update
Jul 17, 2026

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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This study is completed, as verified in Jul 2026. You cannot join it, but the record below documents what was studied.

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