ClinicalTrials.gg
Active, not recruitingNCT06810076DEMONSTRATEUpdated Apr 13, 2026

Developing and Evaluating a Machine-Learning Opioid Overdose Prediction & Risk-Stratification Tool in Primary Care

An interventional study of Machine Learning-Based Clinical Decision Support: Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA) Intervention in Opiate Overdose, Opioid-Related Disorders and Narcotic-Related Disorders, sponsored by University of Pittsburgh. Active, not recruiting at 1 site in United States. Open to participants aged 18 Years and older. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-04-13.

Sponsored by University of Pittsburgh · Not applicable, Interventional, and Health services research

Phase
Not applicable
Study type
Interventional
Enrollment
674
Allocation
Not applicable
Ages
18 Years and older
Sex
All
01

Study summary

This clinical trial aims to evaluate the pilot implementation of a machine-learning (ML)-driven clinical decision support (CDS) tool designed to predict opioid overdose risk within the electronic health record (EHR) system at UF Health Internal Medicine and Family Medicine clinics in Gainesville, Florida. The study will use a pre- versus post-implementation design to compare outcomes within clinics, focusing on measures such as naloxone prescribing rates and opioid overdose occurrences. Researchers will also assess the usability, acceptability, and feasibility of the CDS tool through qualitative interviews with primary care clinicians (PCPs) in the participating clinics.

Read the detailed description

This clinical trial evaluates the pilot implementation of a ML-driven CDS tool designed to predict opioid overdose risk within the electronic health record (EHR) system at thirteen UF Health internal medicine and family medicine clinics in Gainesville, Florida.

The implementation process involved backend and frontend development and integration of the CDS tool. For backend integration, the investigators reviewed clinical workflows, designed a data flow plan to incorporate risk scores into patient charts, and collaborated with UF Health IT and Integrated Data Repository (IDR) Research Services to address alert implementation, data flow, server specifications, and responsibilities. Risk assessments approved by UF Health IT and the institutional review board (IRB) ensured secure access to patient health information (PHI) and enabled EHR integration. For frontend development, the investigators used a user-centered design approach to create the CDS tool prototype, incorporating feedback from PCPs during formative interviews to refine the user interface and ensure timely, actionable alerts through the EPIC system without disrupting clinical workflows.

The study primarily aims to assess the usability, acceptance, and feasibility of the CDS tool six months post-implementation through mixed-method evaluations. Researchers will use semi-structured interviews and an online questionnaire to collect feedback from PCPs, focusing on alert usability, preferences, and outcomes. Quantitative analyses will evaluate alert penetration, usage patterns, and PCP actions, while qualitative analyses will explore themes and insights from override comments to guide tool optimization. Researchers will also explore secondary patient-level outcomes using EHR data such as naloxone prescriptions.

02

Conditions studied

  • Opiate Overdose
  • Opioid-Related Disorders
  • Narcotic-Related Disorders
  • Substance-related Disorders
  • Chemically-Induced Disorders
  • Mental Disorders

Keywords

  • Opiate overdose
  • Opioid-Related Disorders
  • Risk Evaluation and Mitigation
  • Machine Learning
  • Medical Order Entry Systems
  • Decision Support Systems, Clinical
03

In context

Opiate Overdose

70 studies on the registry are indexed under Opiate Overdose; 11 are open to participants now.

This study's enrollment of 674 is above the median of 184 across 48 interventional studies indexed under Opiate Overdose.

Browse Opiate Overdose studies →

Lead sponsor

University of Pittsburgh is the lead sponsor of 1,419 studies on the registry; 168 are open to participants now.

Of its 9 completed or terminated interventional studies of FDA-regulated products, 4 (44%) have results posted.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

04

Who can participate

Ages eligible
18 Years and older
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
No

Eligibility criteria

Inclusion Criteria:

For PCP level outcomes assessment

  • PCPs
  • practicing in any of the 13 participating clinics (10 UF Health Family Medicine clinics and 3 UF Health Internal Medicine) in Gainesville, Florida.

For patient level outcomes assessment:

Inclusion criteria: Patients who seen in any of the 9 participating UF Health clinics who

  • are aged ≥18 years
  • received any opioid prescription in the past year prior to their clinic visit.
  • are identified as being at elevated risk for overdose by the ML algorithm. Exclusion Criteria: Patients who
  • had malignant cancer diagnosis or hospice care prior to study enrollment
05

Study design

Phase
Not applicable
Primary purpose
Health services research
Allocation
Not applicable
Intervention model
Single group
Masking
None (open label)
Enrollment
674 participants (actual)

Study arms

  • Experimental
    Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA) Intervention Arm

    The intervention arm will receive a ML CDS tool that provides interruptive alerts for patients at elevated risk of opioid overdose, triggered when a clinician signs an opioid order.

    Behavioral: Machine Learning-Based Clinical Decision Support: Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA) Intervention

Interventions

  • BehavioralMachine Learning-Based Clinical Decision Support: Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA) Intervention

    In this study, researchers will pilot test an interruptive, ML CDS tool for opioid overdose risk across thirteen primary care clinics at the UF Health in Gainesville, FL. When a patient is identified by the ML algorithm as having an elevated overdose risk and a PCP signs an opioid prescription for the patient, an Opioid Prevention Alert (OPA) will be triggered. The alert will include the rationale for the patient's elevated risk status and provide three risk mitigation recommendations: optimizing pain treatment and mental health support, reviewing and discussing risks with the patient, and offering naloxone annually if no prior naloxone order is found in the patient's record. PCPs can also select an override reason, such as the patient already has naloxone, declined the intervention, is not present/it is not the right time, or the alert is not relevant/other comments, when appropriate.

06

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Composite patient-level outcomes related to opioids

    The CDS tool will generate an Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA) when a PCP signs an opioid order in Epic®. To evaluate the tool's effectiveness, researchers will conduct within-clinic comparisons (pre- vs. post-implementation) and examine a composite of patient-level outcomes post-implementation, including the proportion of patients having any of the following 6 outcomes: 1. receipt of a naloxone order or prescription fill; 2. absence of opioid overdose diagnoses and naloxone administration; 3. absence of ED visits or hospitalizations due to opioid overdose or OUD; 4. absence of overlapping opioid and benzodiazepine use; 5. absence of high-dose opioid use (average daily morphine milligram equivalent ≥50); 6. receipt of referrals to non-pharmacological pain management (e.g., physical therapy, chiropractic care).

    Time frame: From enrollment and up to 12 months (3, 6, 12 months) post implementation of the OPA

  2. PCP's use feedback of the Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA)

    An online questionnaire for PCPs who interacted with OPA includes 12 Likert-scale items (4-point scale: 1 = Strongly Disagree to 4 = Strongly Agree) assessing OPA's acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility: 1. OPA's information was clear. 2. OPA was easy to use. 3. OPA helps identify patients at increased overdose risk. 4. OPA helps understand patient's overdose risk. 5. OPA provides risk management recommendations. 6. OPA identifies the right patients with elevated overdose risk. 7. OPA notifies the correct healthcare team member (i.e., PCPs). 8. A pop-up alert is an appropriate notification approach. 9. Signing an opioid order is the right time for OPA. 10. Alert frequency is appropriate. 11. I prefer OPA over the legacy naloxone alert (see picture). 12. I want this OPA to continue to operate in my EHR. Mean scores (with standard deviations \[SD\]) will be calculated across all items, as well as individual average scores (SD).

    Time frame: From enrollment and up to 7 months post implementation of the OPA

Secondary outcomes

  1. Receipt of a naloxone order or prescription fill

    Proportion of patients receiving alert who have a naloxone order or prescription fill

    Time frame: From enrollment and up to 12 months (3, 6, 12 months) post implementation of the Overdose Prevention Alert (OPA)

  2. Absence of opioid overdose diagnoses and naloxone administration

    Proportion of patients receiving alert who do not have an opioid overdose diagnoses and naloxone administration

    Time frame: From enrollment and up to 12 months (3, 6, 12 months) post implementation

  3. Absence of ED visits or hospitalizations due to opioid overdose or OUD

    Proportion of patients receiving alert who do not have ED visits or hospitalizations due to opioid overdose or opioid use disorder (OUD)

    Time frame: From enrollment and up to 12 months (3, 6, 12 months) post implementation

  4. Absence of overlapping opioid and benzodiazepine use

    Proportion of patients receiving alert who do not have overlapping opioid and benzodiazepine use

    Time frame: From enrollment and up to 12 months (3, 6, 12 months) post implementation

  5. Absence of high-dose opioid use (average daily morphine milligram equivalent ≥50)

    Proportion of patients receiving alert who do not have high-dose opioid use (average daily morphine milligram equivalent ≥50).

    Time frame: From enrollment and up to 12 months (3, 6, 12 months) post implementation

  6. Receipt of referrals to non-pharmacological pain management (e.g., physical therapy, chiropractic care

    Proportion of patients receiving alert who have referrals to non-pharmacological pain management (e.g., physical therapy, chiropractic care).

    Time frame: From enrollment and up to 12 months (3, 6, 12 months) post implementation

07

Study locations

1 site
  • University of Florida Health Internal Medicine and Family Medicine
    Gainesville, Florida 32608, United States
08

References and documents

Publications

  • Hong JJ, Wilson DL, Nguyen K, Gellad WF, Diiulio J, Militello L, Yan S, Harle CA, Nelson D, Rosenberg EI, Schmidt S, Chang CH, Cochran G, Wu Y, Staras SAS, Kuza C, Lo-Ciganic WH. Protocol for a Single-Arm Pilot Clinical Trial: Developing and Evaluating a Machine Learning Opioid Prediction & Risk-Stratification E-Platform (DEMONSTRATE). J Clin Med. 2025 Dec 1;14(23):8522. doi: 10.3390/jcm14238522. PubMed 41375825 ↗
  • Lo-Ciganic WH, Donohue JM, Yang Q, Huang JL, Chang CY, Weiss JC, Guo J, Zhang HH, Cochran G, Gordon AJ, Malone DC, Kwoh CK, Wilson DL, Kuza CC, Gellad WF. Developing and validating a machine-learning algorithm to predict opioid overdose in Medicaid beneficiaries in two US states: a prognostic modelling study. Lancet Digit Health. 2022 Jun;4(6):e455-e465. doi: 10.1016/S2589-7500(22)00062-0. PubMed 35623798 ↗
  • Lo-Ciganic WH, Huang JL, Zhang HH, Weiss JC, Kwoh CK, Donohue JM, Gordon AJ, Cochran G, Malone DC, Kuza CC, Gellad WF. Using machine learning to predict risk of incident opioid use disorder among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries: A prognostic study. PLoS One. 2020 Jul 17;15(7):e0235981. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0235981. eCollection 2020. PubMed 32678860 ↗
  • Lo-Ciganic WH, Huang JL, Zhang HH, Weiss JC, Wu Y, Kwoh CK, Donohue JM, Cochran G, Gordon AJ, Malone DC, Kuza CC, Gellad WF. Evaluation of Machine-Learning Algorithms for Predicting Opioid Overdose Risk Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Opioid Prescriptions. JAMA Netw Open. 2019 Mar 1;2(3):e190968. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.0968. PubMed 30901048 ↗
  • Militello LG, Diiulio J, Wilson DL, Nguyen KA, Harle CA, Gellad W, Lo-Ciganic WH. Using human factors methods to mitigate bias in artificial intelligence-based clinical decision support. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2025 Feb 1;32(2):398-403. doi: 10.1093/jamia/ocae291. PubMed 39569464 ↗
  • Nguyen K, Wilson DL, Diiulio J, Hall B, Militello L, Gellad WF, Harle CA, Lewis M, Schmidt S, Rosenberg EI, Nelson D, He X, Wu Y, Bian J, Staras SAS, Gordon AJ, Cochran J, Kuza C, Yang S, Lo-Ciganic W. Design and development of a machine-learning-driven opioid overdose risk prediction tool integrated in electronic health records in primary care settings. Bioelectron Med. 2024 Oct 18;10(1):24. doi: 10.1186/s42234-024-00156-3. PubMed 39420438 ↗

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No — While transparency and data sharing are critical to advancing clinical research, researchers are unable to share individual participant data (IPD) derived from UF Health EHR due to institutional and legal constraints. The data are governed by strict privacy regulations, including HIPAA, which mandate the protection of patient confidentiality. Additionally, UF Health's policies restrict the dissemination of EHR data to ensure compliance with these regulations and safeguard against the risk of re-identification. As a result, while researchers can report aggregated findings, sharing raw participant-level data is not permissible under current regulatory and institutional frameworks.

09

Timeline

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
ElapsedEstimatedEstimated, not yet reachedSimilar studies: half by the dot; the band is the middle halfHalf of similar studies reached it by the dot; the band is the middle half, from a quarter to three quarters

Started Apr 2025 (actual). Primary completion is estimated for Oct 2026, 17 months after the start.

Of 28 interventional studies with no phase under Opiate Overdose, half reached primary completion within 26 months of starting (the median), counting those still running; a quarter within 14 and three quarters within 41. This study's planned 17 months is below that.

How these figures are worked out, and which studies are left out of them.

Registered
Jan 27, 2025
First posted
Feb 5, 2025
StartActual
Apr 8, 2025
Primary completionEst.
Oct 7, 2026
CompletionEst.
Oct 7, 2026
Last update
Apr 13, 2026
What these dates mean
Start.
When the first participant enrolled; while estimated, when the study expects to open to recruitment.
Primary completion.
When the last participant was examined or treated to collect data for the study's main question, its primary outcome. A study that stopped early gives the date its data collection stopped.
Completion.
When the last participant's last visit took place, for every outcome, secondary ones and side effects included: the end of the study. Often later than primary completion, sometimes the same day.
Actual and Est.
Actual means the registry says the date has happened. Est. (estimated) is a date the sponsor plans or expects. It can still move, and the sponsor is expected to change it to actual once it has passed.
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Apr 13, 2026, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
10

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT06810076
Collaborators
National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), Applied Decision Science
Responsible party
Wei-Hsuan Lo-Ciganic (Professor, University of Pittsburgh) — Principal investigator
First posted
Feb 5, 2025
Start date
Apr 8, 2025
Primary completion
Oct 7, 2026 (estimated)
Completion
Oct 7, 2026 (estimated)
Last update
Apr 13, 2026

Study contacts

Wei-Hsuan Lo-Ciganic, PhD
principal investigator · Division of General Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

Not currently enrolling

This study is active, not recruiting, as verified in Apr 2026. You cannot join it, but the record below documents what was studied.

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