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CompletedNCT07249697RFPNECUpdated Feb 27, 2026

Risk Factors for Poor Prognosis in Neonatal Necrotizing Enterocolitis

An observational study in Necrotizing Enterocolitis, sponsored by Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center. Completed at 1 site in China. Open to participants aged 1 Day to 3 Months, including healthy volunteers. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-02-27.

Sponsored by Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center · Observational

Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Retrospective
Enrollment
118
Ages
1 Day to 3 Months
Sex
All
01

Study summary

This is a retrospective study led by Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, focusing on newborns diagnosed with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC)-a serious gastrointestinal disease that threatens newborns' lives-between January 2017 and December 2022.

Purpose of the study: NEC can lead to severe conditions like bowel perforation or even death, and it's hard for doctors to spot high-risk babies early with current tools. This study aims to analyze the babies' clinical information (e.g., birth weight, symptoms like belly swelling or bloody stools), blood test results (e.g., lactate levels, white blood cell counts), and organ function scores (nSOFA scores) to find indicators that can predict whether NEC will get worse or cause death.

Questions the study tries to answer: Can combining metabolic indicators (like lactate), blood test parameters, and organ function scores better predict if a newborn with NEC will develop perforated NEC (a more severe form where the bowel has holes) or die during hospitalization? Are these combined indicators more reliable than single indicators alone? Study hypothesis: We guess that integrating metabolic markers (such as lactate), blood routine parameters, and nSOFA scores will be more accurate than using any single indicator to predict the progression of NEC and the risk of death in affected newborns.

Read the detailed description
  1. Study Rationale Necrotizing Enterocolitis (NEC) is a life-threatening gastrointestinal disorder primarily affecting very low birth weight (VLBW) neonates (incidence: 5-12%). Around 20-40% of cases progress to severe disease requiring surgery, and survivors often face long-term complications (e.g., short-bowel syndrome, neurodevelopmental impairments). Despite advances in neonatal care, early identification of high-risk patients remains challenging due to nonspecific clinical/radiographic signs and insufficiently sensitive/specific conventional biomarkers.

    NEC pathophysiology involves intestinal ischemia-reperfusion injury, excessive immune activation, and microbial dysbiosis. Serum lactate (a marker of hypoperfusion/anaerobic metabolism) correlates with NEC severity but lacks specificity; peripheral blood cell (CBC) indices are accessible but understudied in combination with lactate. The Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (nSOFA) score predicts overall NEC mortality but fails to stratify risk for perforated NEC (PNEC), a high-risk subtype. This study aims to address gaps by integrating metabolic (lactate), hematologic (CBC), and organ dysfunction (nSOFA) metrics for NEC prognosis.

  2. Study Design and Conduct This is a retrospective cohort study conducted at the Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center, approved by the institutional ethics committee and compliant with the Helsinki Declaration. The study period is January 2017 and December 2022; eligible participants are identified via retrospective review of electronic medical records (EMRs), with data extracted in a structured manner.
  3. Data Collection

    Structured EMR extraction captures key variables:

    Neonatal history: Sex, gestational age, birth weight, birth asphyxia (Apgar scores), small for gestational age (SGA) status, preterm complications (e.g., patent ductus arteriosus [PDA], respiratory distress syndrome [RDS]), feeding pattern, mechanical ventilation use.

    Maternal history: Delivery mode, chorioamnionitis, premature rupture of membranes.

    NEC-related parameters: Bell's staging, clinical manifestations (e.g., abdominal distension, pneumoperitoneum), complications (sepsis, shock), therapeutic interventions (surgery), in-hospital mortality.

    Laboratory/organ dysfunction indicators: Serum lactate (at NEC onset), CBC parameters (WBC, neutrophils, lymphocytes, platelets) and derived inflammatory indices, nSOFA score (at NEC onset).

  4. Statistical Analysis

    Analyses use SPSS 26.0 and GraphPad Prism 9.0:

    Data expression: Normally distributed variables (mean ± SD), skewed variables (median [IQR]), categorical variables (frequency %).

    Intergroup comparisons: Chi-square/Fisher's exact test (categorical), t-test/Mann-Whitney U test (continuous).

    Multivariate logistic regression: Includes variables with p\<0.05 from univariate analysis to identify independent predictors.

    Mediation analysis (PROCESS macro 4.1, 1000 bootstraps): Decomposes total effects into direct/indirect paths.

    ROC curve analysis: Evaluates predictive performance of single/combined biomarkers (AUC as metric). All tests are two-tailed; p\<0.05 is significant.

  5. Study Objectives Primary: Identify indicators predicting NEC progression and in-hospital mortality via analysis of clinical, metabolic, and laboratory data.

    Secondary: Explore integrated biomarkers for NEC severity stratification (e.g., Bell's staging, surgical need) to optimize clinical decision-making.

  6. Participant Protection All data are de-identified before analysis and stored in a password-protected database (accessible only to the study team). Informed consent is obtained from participants' legal representatives, who are informed of the right to withdraw at any time without penalty.
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Conditions studied

  • Necrotizing Enterocolitis

Keywords

  • Necrotizing Enterocolitis
  • mortality
  • biomarkers
03

In context

Enterocolitis, Necrotizing

215 studies on the registry are indexed under Enterocolitis, Necrotizing; 44 are open to participants now.

This study's enrollment of 118 is close to the median of 121 across 94 observational studies indexed under Enterocolitis, Necrotizing.

Browse Enterocolitis, Necrotizing studies →

Lead sponsor

Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center is the lead sponsor of 56 studies on the registry; 28 are open to participants now.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

04

Who can participate

Ages eligible
1 Day to 3 Months
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
Yes
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

In this study, a retrospective analysis was conducted on 118 enrolled neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), with data collected at Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center between January 2017 and December 2022.

Inclusion criteria

(1) Diagnosis of NEC;

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  1. Congenital gastrointestinal malformations (e.g., intestinal atresia, Hirschsprung's disease) or spontaneous intestinal perforation;
  2. Hereditary metabolic disorders;
  3. refusal of participation.
05

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Retrospective
Enrollment
118 participants (actual)
Patient registry
No

Groups and cohorts

  • Mild NEC group

    Bell's stage I and IIa

    Other: Observational retrospective cohort study

  • Severe NEC group

    Bell's stage IIb and III

    Other: Observational retrospective cohort study

  • Surgical group

    Patients with NEC who underwent surgical treatment

    Other: Observational retrospective cohort study

  • Non-surgical group

    Patients with NEC who did not undergo surgical treatment but opted for conservative treatment

    Other: Observational retrospective cohort study

Interventions

  • OtherObservational retrospective cohort study

    Observational retrospective cohort study, data collection was performed via structured extraction from electronic medical records: Includingclinical characteristics, metabolic indicators, laboratory parameters, prognosis, and outcomes.

06

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. In-hospital mortality

    In-hospital mortality

    Time frame: Day 1 up to 3 months

  2. Occurrence of perforated necrotizing enterocolitis

    Occurrence of perforated necrotizing enterocolitis

    Time frame: Day 1 up to 3 months

Secondary outcomes

  1. Bell's Staging System for Necrotizing Enterocolitis (NEC)

    The Bell staging system is a standardized clinically validated classification tool for assessing the severity of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), integrating clinical manifestations, imaging, and laboratory data. Assessment criteria include: clinical symptoms (e.g., abdominal distension, bloody stools, feeding intolerance, shock); imaging findings (abdominal X-ray showing intestinal pneumatosis, portal venous gas, pneumoperitoneum, etc.); and laboratory results (thrombocytopenia, metabolic acidosis, etc.). Staging is determined by the research team through review of neonates' complete clinical, imaging, and laboratory records (extracted per the study's structured protocol) to ensure alignment with established Bell staging criteria.

    Time frame: Day 1 up to 3 months

  2. Incidence of Surgical Necrotizing Enterocolitis (NEC)

    "Surgical NEC" in this study refers to necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) cases requiring surgical intervention. Its assessment relies on abdominal X-ray, abdominal ultrasound, and Bell's Staging System (as referenced in the Study Protocol with Statistical Analysis Plan.docx), with data extracted from neonates' electronic medical records per the protocol's data collection framework. Eligibility for classifying a case as surgical NEC is determined by: 1) Abdominal X-ray/ultrasound findings indicating severe NEC progression (e.g., pneumoperitoneum, unresponsive extensive pneumatosis intestinalis); 2) Bell's Staging (assessed per study criteria) confirming Stage III (Advanced NEC) - both consistent with clinical standards for initiating NEC-related surgery. The study team reviews these imaging results and staging data to confirm surgical NEC uniformly.

    Time frame: Day 1 up to 3 months

07

Study locations

1 site
  • Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center
    Guangdong, Guangdong 510623, China
08

References and documents

Publications

  • Clyman RI, Jin C, Hills NK. A role for neonatal bacteremia in deaths due to intestinal perforation: spontaneous intestinal perforation compared with perforated necrotizing enterocolitis. J Perinatol. 2020 Nov;40(11):1662-1670. doi: 10.1038/s41372-020-0691-4. Epub 2020 May 20. PubMed 32433511 ↗
  • Kim JH, Sampath V, Canvasser J. Challenges in diagnosing necrotizing enterocolitis. Pediatr Res. 2020 Aug;88(Suppl 1):16-20. doi: 10.1038/s41390-020-1090-4. PubMed 32855507 ↗
  • Roberts AG, Younge N, Greenberg RG. Neonatal Necrotizing Enterocolitis: An Update on Pathophysiology, Treatment, and Prevention. Paediatr Drugs. 2024 May;26(3):259-275. doi: 10.1007/s40272-024-00626-w. Epub 2024 Apr 2. PubMed 38564081 ↗
  • Wang Y, Lai L, Zhang Q, Zheng L. Lactate acid level and prognosis of neonatal necrotizing enterocolitis: a retrospective cohort study based on pediatric-specific critical care database. J Pediatr (Rio J). 2023 May-Jun;99(3):278-283. doi: 10.1016/j.jped.2022.11.005. Epub 2022 Dec 16. PubMed 36535423 ↗
  • Kislal FM, Polat CC, Ergul E, Acikalin AA, Guven D, Gundogan E, Sarici D. Can lactate be valuable in early diagnosis and prognosis of neonatal sepsis? Niger J Clin Pract. 2023 Sep;26(9):1319-1325. doi: 10.4103/njcp.njcp_54_23. PubMed 37794545 ↗
  • El-Abd Ahmed A, Hassan MH, Abo-Halawa N, Abdel-Razik GM, Moubarak FA, Sakhr HM. Lactate and intestinal fatty acid binding protein as essential biomarkers in neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis: ultrasonographic and surgical considerations. Pediatr Neonatol. 2020 Oct;61(5):481-489. doi: 10.1016/j.pedneo.2020.03.015. Epub 2020 Apr 5. PubMed 32336643 ↗
  • Li B, Chen Y, Yang Z, Sun X, Tian C, Liu J, Yuan L, Dai K. Lactate/albumin ratio as a prognostic biomarker for in-hospital mortality in pediatric patients with necrotizing enterocolitis. BMC Pediatr. 2025 Feb 4;25(1):93. doi: 10.1186/s12887-025-05439-5. PubMed 39905329 ↗
  • Lewis AN, de la Cruz D, Wynn JL, Frazer LC, Yakah W, Martin CR, Yang H, Itriago E, Unger J, Hair AB, Miele J, Sullivan BA, Husain A, Good M. Evaluation of the Neonatal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Mortality Risk in Preterm Infants with Necrotizing Enterocolitis. Neonatology. 2022;119(3):334-344. doi: 10.1159/000522560. Epub 2022 Mar 21. PubMed 35313308 ↗

Study documents

  • Protocol and statistical analysis plan · Jul 1, 2024
  • Informed consent form · Jul 1, 2024

Documents are hosted by the registry — open the source record to download them.

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No

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Updates

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Feb 27, 2026, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
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Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT07249697
Lead sponsor
Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center
Responsible party
Wei Zhou (Principal Investigator, Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center) — Principal investigator
First posted
Nov 25, 2025
Start date
Jul 1, 2017
Primary completion
Jun 30, 2025
Completion
Jun 30, 2025
Last update
Feb 27, 2026

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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This study is completed, as verified in Feb 2026. You cannot join it, but the record below documents what was studied.

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