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CompletedNCT05620537Updated Feb 13, 2023

A Novel Nomogram to Predict the Postoperative Overall Survival in Gastrointestinal Cancer Patients

An observational study in Gastrointestinal Cancers - Stomach, Gastrointestinal Cancers - Colorectal and Prognosis, sponsored by Wang Xinying. Completed at 1 site in China. Open to participants aged 18 Years to 80 Years. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2023-02-13.

Sponsored by Wang Xinying · Observational

Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Retrospective
Enrollment
808
Ages
18 Years to 80 Years
Sex
All
01

Study summary

This multicenter retrospectively observational cohort study was conducted on participants with histologically confirmed gastric and colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery in 11 medical centers in China from August 1, 2015, to June 31, 2018. Baseline clinicopathologic data and nutritional status assessments including Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) score and Patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) rating were collected. Variables will be screened using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model and Cox regression analysis. Internal and external validations will be performed via the receiver operating curve (ROC), the area under the curve (AUC), the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Five folds cross-validation by 200 times.

Read the detailed description
  1. Study design and patients This study is a multicenter retrospectively observational cohort study, which collected and followed up the patients with gastric cancer and colorectal cancer in 11 Chinese hospitals from August 1, 2015, to June 31, 2018. The eight sites of these were recruited as a training cohort, and the other three sites were recruited as an external validation cohort (Supplement Table 1). The inclusion criteria for both cohorts were complied with: 1) 18-80 years old; 2) postoperative pathological diagnosis of gastric or colorectal adenocarcinoma; 3) underwent radical surgery; 4) TNM stage ranged from stage I to stage III. The exclusion criteria included: 1) NRS 2002 or PG-SGA data was missing; 2) pathological diagnosis of gastric stump cancer, cancer in situ, or pin-point cancer; 3) in-hospital death or death within 30 days after surgery; 4) preoperative neoadjuvant therapy; 5) preoperative endoscopic surgery; 6) the previous history of other malignant tumors; 7) pregnancy. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of each hospital.
  2. Data collection The following clinical data were collected in this study: demographic characteristics (age, sex, height, weight, and BMI), age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (aCCI), NRS 2002 score, PG-SGA rating, pathological characteristics (tumor stage, type, differentiation, tumor size, and tumor vol-ume), surgical characteristics (operation type and intraoperative blood loss), hematological indicators [carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), cancer antigen19-9 (CA19-9), albumin, pre-albumin, blood glucose, triglycerides (TG), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine, hemoglobin, and white blood cell], and other clinical characteristics (postoperative complication and postoperative infection). These candidate variables were derived from previous studies and clinical experience. We obtained tumor staging from electronic medical records and pathological reports using the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition. Tumor volume was derived from tumor length, width, and height using the following formulas: V = 1/2 × a × b2 or V = π/6 × a × b × c.
  3. Nutritional status assessments All the centers routinely perform nutritional status assessments on admission by the NRS 2002 and PG-SGA. We collected the NRS 2002 score and PG-SGA rating from the electronic medical record system.

    3.1 NRS 2002 NRS 2002 was used to estimate nutritional risk, accounting for inadequate nutritional status (low, moderate, or severe) and illness severity (low, moderate, or severe), with a 70-year age adjustment. The NRS 2002 score ranges from 0 to 7. For the NRS 2002, we employed three categories: no nutritional risk (\<3), nutritional risk (3-4), and severe nutritional risk (≥5).

    3.2 PG-SGA The PG-SGA, a nutritional status assessment tool based on the SGA, was developed exclusively for cancer patients. This includes self-evaluation by patients as well as evaluation by medical professionals. The seven components that make up the core content are weight, food intake, symptoms, functional ability, illness and its relationship to nutritional needs, metabolic demand (stress), and physical examination. The first four components were assessed by patients, while the final three were assessed by medical professionals. Physical examination was used to determine muscular exhaustion, subcutaneous fat thickness, and edema. Decreased mass and tone in temporal regions, deltoids, and quads indicated muscular exhaustion. The triceps and midaxillary lines at the level of the lower ribs were studied for subcutaneous fat depletion. Edema was checked on the ankles. Patients were categorized as well-nourished (A), moderately malnourished (B), or severely malnourished (C) based on the foregoing assessments.

  4. Study Outcome The primary outcome of this study was OS, defined as the time from the date of surgery to the end of follow-up or death. Follow-up information was mainly collected through the follow-up database of gastric and colorectal cancer of each center combined with telephone, outpatient, or inpatient follow-ups.
  5. Statistical methods Measurement data will be expressed as means and standard deviations (SD), while enumeration data will be expressed as frequencies and respective percentages. Hematological indicators will be converted to categorical variables while analyzed. Variables will be initially screened using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The variables with minimum λ will be further screened using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis to identify independent predictors. Then we will build a prediction model by multivariate Cox regression model and plot the nomogram. For user convenience, we will also create a dynamic nomogram webpage. Discrimination of the model will be assessed using the receiver operating curve (ROC), the area under the curve (AUC), and the concordance index (C-index). Calibration plots will be used to assess the calibration of the model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) will be used to evaluate the clinical utility of the model. The same assessments will be performed with an external validation cohort. Internal validation of the model will be performed using Five folds cross-validation by 200 times. The cut-off values of the nomogram score which categorize patients into three categories (low-risk, middle-risk, and high-risk) will be calculated by X-tile 3.6.1 version (https://medicine.yale.edu/lab/rimm/research/software/). Kaplan-Meier analysis will be used to do survival analyses. R 4.2.0 version (http://www.r-project.org) will be used for statistical analyses of this study. A two-tailed p \<0.05 will be considered statistically significant.
02

Conditions studied

  • Gastrointestinal Cancers - Stomach
  • Gastrointestinal Cancers - Colorectal
  • Prognosis
  • Survival Analysis
  • Nutrition Assessment

Keywords

  • Gastrointestinal Cancer
  • NRS 2002
  • Postoperative survival
  • Nomogram
  • multicenter study
03

In context

Gastrointestinal Neoplasms

695 studies on the registry are indexed under Gastrointestinal Neoplasms; 209 are open to participants now.

This study's enrollment of 808 is above the median of 200 across 168 observational studies indexed under Gastrointestinal Neoplasms.

Browse Gastrointestinal Neoplasms studies →

Lead sponsor

Wang Xinying is the lead sponsor of 4 studies on the registry; 2 are open to participants now.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

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Who can participate

Ages eligible
18 Years to 80 Years
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
No
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

The participants are who with histologically confirmed gastric and colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery in 11 medical centers in China from August 1, 2015, to June 31, 2018.

Go through the criteria one by one — yes, no or not sure — and take the list to your doctor or the study team. Kept in this browser only.

Inclusion criteria

  • 18-80 years old
  • postoperative pathological diagnosis of gastric or colorectal adenocarcinoma
  • underwent radical surgery
  • TNM stage ranged from stage I to stage III

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  • NRS 2002 or PG-SGA data was missing
  • pathological diagnosis of gastric stump cancer, cancer in situ, or pin-point cancer
  • in-hospital death or death within 30 days after surgery
  • preoperative therapy
  • preoperative endoscopic surgery
  • the previous history of other malignant tumors
  • pregnancy.
Terms in these criteria, in plain language(1)

Underlined terms in the criteria open these too. Explained by clinicaltrials.gg, not part of the registry record. The study team decides who can take part.

Adjuvant and neoadjuvant

Neoadjuvant treatment is given before the main treatment (usually surgery), often to shrink a tumour. Adjuvant treatment is given after it, to lower the chance of the cancer coming back.

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Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Retrospective
Enrollment
808 participants (actual)
Patient registry
No

Groups and cohorts

  • Gastrointestinal cancer patients cohort

    Other: observation

Interventions

  • Otherobservation

    There are no interventions.

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What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. postoperative overall survival

    It is the time from the date of surgery to the end of follow-up or death.

    Time frame: 2022-02-01

07

Study locations

1 site
  • Jinling Hospital
    Nanjing, Jiangsu 210002, China
08

References and documents

Individual participant data

Plan to share: Undecided — Data and analytic code will be made available upon request pending application and approval by the corresponding author.

No publications or documents are linked to this record.

09

Timeline

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
ElapsedEstimatedEstimated, not yet reached

Ran from Nov 2022 to primary completion in Nov 2022, 0 months.

How these figures are worked out, and which studies are left out of them.

Registered
Nov 10, 2022
First posted
Nov 17, 2022
StartActual
Nov 10, 2022
Primary completionActual
Nov 25, 2022
CompletionActual
Nov 25, 2022
Last update
Feb 13, 2023
What these dates mean
Start.
When the first participant enrolled; while estimated, when the study expects to open to recruitment.
Primary completion.
When the last participant was examined or treated to collect data for the study's main question, its primary outcome. A study that stopped early gives the date its data collection stopped.
Completion.
When the last participant's last visit took place, for every outcome, secondary ones and side effects included: the end of the study. Often later than primary completion, sometimes the same day.
Actual and Est.
Actual means the registry says the date has happened. Est. (estimated) is a date the sponsor plans or expects. It can still move, and the sponsor is expected to change it to actual once it has passed.
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Feb 13, 2023, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
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Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT05620537
Lead sponsor
Wang Xinying
Collaborators
Jiangsu Cancer Institute & Hospital, Xijing Hospital, Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Shanghai 10th People's Hospital, West China Hospital, First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese PLA General Hospital
Responsible party
Wang Xinying (Prof., Jinling Hospital, China) — Sponsor-investigator
First posted
Nov 17, 2022
Start date
Nov 10, 2022
Primary completion
Nov 25, 2022
Completion
Nov 25, 2022
Last update
Feb 13, 2023

Study contacts

Xinying Wang, M.D.
principal investigator · Jinling Hospital, China

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

Not currently enrolling

This study is completed, as verified in Feb 2023. You cannot join it, but the record below documents what was studied.

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