CClinicalTrials.gg
Status unknownNCT04640649Updated Nov 23, 2020

Prediction of Progression of Age-Related Macular Degeneration

An interventional study of Algorithm prediction in Macular Degeneration, Macular Degeneration, Wet and Macular Degeneration, Dry, sponsored by University of Illinois at Chicago. Status unknown. Open to participants aged 45 Years and older. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2020-11-23.

Sponsored by University of Illinois at Chicago · Not applicable, Interventional, and Diagnostic

The sponsor has not verified this record recently (last verified Nov 2020), so the status shown — last known as Not yet recruiting — may be out of date.
Phase
Not applicable
Study type
Interventional
Enrollment
278
Allocation
Randomized
Ages
45 Years and older
Sex
All
01

Study summary

The goal for this study is to initiate a randomized, controlled clinical trial to test the viability of personalized AMD progression prediction models. Early and intermediate AMD patients will be recruited and randomly assigned them to a control or test group. The test group will include patients who will receive personalized follow-up care based on their predicted risk, and collect baseline and follow-up data.

This work will advance the AMD field by improving the identification of high-risk patients as candidates for more frequent screening and earlier treatment, leading to better clinical outcomes.

Read the detailed description

More than 90% of patients with advanced AMD have severe vision loss. Predicting AMD progression from an early or intermediate stage is crucial, since prompt intervention after a choroidal neovascularization (CNV) event and geographic atrophy (GA) monitoring can greatly improve visual outcomes. Patients at higher risk of progression should have more frequent follow-up visits, since progression often occurs before any visual changes are noticed by the patient. Previous work has determined the risk factors for AMD progression based on drusen features in fundus photos, Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) and from genetic factors. However, current models are limited by their ability to make predictions over short intervals, which limits their utility in guiding screening intervals.

In this study we will recruit patients with early and intermediate AMD in at least one eye who are at risk of converting to wet AMD or GA expansion. We will perform a randomized trial where we will randomly assign them to a control or test group (personalized follow-up care starting at 3 months based on their predicted risk from algorithm results), and collect baseline genetic, demographic, imaging, and clinical data and first follow-up data at the 3 month and 6 month follow-up time points. Outcomes will be measured to determine if an algorithm predicting early follow-up for high-risk patients (3 month) is advantageous over the standard 6 month follow-up time point.

02

Conditions studied

  • Macular Degeneration
  • Macular Degeneration, Wet
  • Macular Degeneration, Dry
03

In context

Macular Degeneration

1,474 studies on the registry are indexed under Macular Degeneration; 206 are open to participants now.

This study's planned enrollment of 278 is above the median of 51 across 985 interventional studies indexed under Macular Degeneration.

Browse Macular Degeneration studies →

Lead sponsor

University of Illinois at Chicago is the lead sponsor of 515 studies on the registry; 133 are open to participants now.

Of its 31 completed or terminated interventional studies of FDA-regulated products, 18 (58%) have results posted.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

04

Who can participate

Ages eligible
45 Years and older
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
No

Inclusion criteria

  • Non-neovascular AMD at baseline in at least one eye with no signs of GA,
  • > 45 years of age,
  • willingness to participate through a signed consent form.

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Pregnant women and vulnerable populations
  • Participation in an investigational trial that involves treatment with any drug (with the exception of vitamins or minerals) within 3 months prior to Day 1.
  • Any history of macular pathology unrelated to AMD affecting vision or contributing to the presence of intraretinal or subretinal fluid
05

Study design

Phase
Not applicable
Primary purpose
Diagnostic
Allocation
Randomized
Intervention model
Single group
Masking
None (open label)
Enrollment
278 participants (estimated)

Study arms

  • Experimental
    Prediction Algorithm

    Patients in the test arm will have a screening visit, then will come for two follow-up visits, at 3 months (if the algorithm determines high-risk of conversion within 3 months) and 6 months.

    Other: Algorithm prediction

  • No intervention
    Control

    Patients in the control arm will have a screening visit, then will come for one follow-up visit, at 6 months (standard care) only.

Interventions

  • OtherAlgorithm prediction

    Patients with early and intermediate AMD in at least one eye who are at risk of converting to wet AMD or GA expansion will be randomly assigned to a test group or control group. The test group will have their baseline data analyzed by an algorithm to predict the probability of conversion to wet AMD. If the probability is high for conversion at or before 3 months, patients will have earlier follow-up care than the control group (standard follow-up care every 6 months).

06

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Visual Acuity

    The primary outcome measure will be the difference in visual acuity between test and control patients in those who progressed to late stage AMD

    Time frame: one year

Secondary outcomes

  1. Actual risk of conversion

    The actual risk/ of conversion to wet AMD will be calculated for each eye that progressed using regression analysis. This risk will be compared to the risk that the algorithm predicted.

    Time frame: one year

  2. Number of visits

    Number of visits will be compared between the test arm and the control arm of patients who progression to wet AMD

    Time frame: one year

07

Study locations

No study locations are listed for this record.

08

References and documents

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No

No publications or documents are linked to this record.

09

Updates

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Nov 23, 2020, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
10

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT04640649
Lead sponsor
University of Illinois at Chicago
Collaborators
Stanford University, Illinois Retina Associates, Bascom Palmer Eye Institute
Responsible party
Joelle Hallak (Assistant Professor, Director, University of Illinois at Chicago) — Principal investigator
First posted
Nov 23, 2020
Start date
Nov 2020 (estimated)
Primary completion
Jul 2021 (estimated)
Completion
Dec 2021 (estimated)
Last update
Nov 23, 2020

Study contacts

Joelle A Hallak, PhD
Contact
joelle@uic.edu
3129960157
Kathleen Romond, MPH
Contact
kromon2@uic.edu
Joelle A Hallak, PhD
principal investigator · University of Illinois at Chicago

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

Not currently enrolling

This study is status unknown, as verified in Nov 2020. You cannot join it, but the record below documents what was studied.

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