ClinicalTrials.gg
RecruitingNCT03774758Updated Oct 14, 2026

Biomarkers for Risk Stratification in Lung Cancer

An observational study in Nodule Solitary Pulmonary and Non-small Cell Lung Cancer, sponsored by University of California, San Francisco. Recruiting at 3 sites in United States. Open to participants aged 40 Years and older. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-10-14.

Sponsored by University of California, San Francisco · Observational

From the registry’s dates

  • Started Dec 2017; still recruiting 8 years 10 months later.
Updated Oct 14, 2026Enrollment updatedGo to Updates ↓
Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
1,440
Ages
40 Years and older
Sex
All
01

Study summary

This is a prospective observational study that will follow patients who undergo lung cancer screening at the San Francisco VA Medical Center, University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) Medical Center, and the San Francisco General Hospital. The proposed study will comprise of two primary populations to determine the ctDNA assay performance in a variety of clinical settings.

Read the detailed description

Study objectives and statistical approaches to achieve those objectives are determined at the level of the populations described below:

Population 1: Sensitivity and Specificity Thresholding.

In this phase, the technical feasibility of the intended use case will be assessed in the intended use population relative to known cancer status as established by standard clinical methods. ctDNA samples from enrolled patients will be assessed in each of the following cohorts:

Cohort 1A: High-risk patients negative for lung cancer by CT screening and clinical follow-up.

Cohort 1B: Patients with lung nodules ≥6 mm by CT but negative for lung cancer by extended (3 years) CT screening follow-up.

Cohort 1C: Patients with lung cancer (histologically proven or by consensus tumor board opinion of ≥90% probability of cancer) prior to definitive therapy.

Population 2: Clinical Intended Use Performance. In this phase, the clinical performance of the ctDNA assay will be evaluated in patients with high clinical suspicion for lung cancer. ctDNA will be compared to the clinical diagnosis made according to the standard of care (e.g. biopsy, CT surveillance, etc.). ctDNA samples from enrolled patients will be assessed in each of the following cohorts:

Cohort 2A: High-risk patients newly positive (Lung imaging Reporting And Data System (Lung-RADS) >=3) by CT screening.

Cohort 2B: Patients with >= 6 mm lung nodules suspicious for lung cancer by treating physician judgment.

Cohort 2C: Patients with a personal history of lung cancer after completion of curative intent treatment but without evidence of recurrence.

Specific Aim 1: To estimate the ctDNA assay sensitivity and specificity requirements in the specific clinical use populations using patients with known non-small cell lung cancer status.

Specific Aim 2: To prospectively estimate the ctDNA assay clinical performance in the clinical application of interest.

ENDPOINTS

Primary Endpoints

Specific Aim 1: Estimation of the ctDNA assay's clinical sensitivity and specificity in patients with lung cancer as proven by histology or tumor board consensus opinion* and in patients with lung nodule ≥6 mm but without cancer as proven by extended CT screening follow-up**.

*Patients may be treated with curative-intent Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) without tissue confirmation IF pretest probability for lung cancer by tumor board consensus opinion is ≥90% and the biopsy risk is high.

**Extended CT screening follow-up defined by documentation of ≥3 years of radiographic stability and consensus clinical opinion.

Specific Aim 2: Estimation of the ctDNA assay's clinical predictive value relative to standard of care diagnostic work-up in suspicious nodule adjudication in both the high-risk and general populations (the clinical applications of interest).

Secondary Endpoints

  • Correlation of the ctDNA assay performance with Lung-RADS radiographic criteria
  • Correlation of Lung-RADS with disease truth defined by clinical follow up as the definite gold standard

Exploratory Endpoints

  • Correlation of plasma and tissue genotyping results
  • Correlation of the ctDNA assay with orthogonal reference technologies (e.g. ddPCR)
  • Correlation of the ctDNA assay performance with histologic sub-type and clinical course (e.g. aggressive vs. indolent disease)
  • Correlation of the ctDNA assay performance with clinical lung cancer risk factors
  • Correlation of the ctDNA assay results pre-and post-resection
  • Correlation of follow-up the ctDNA assay results and kinetics vs. clinical recurrence post-resection or radiotherapy
  • Estimation of theoretical biopsy avoidance rate in clinical use population.
02

Conditions studied

  • Nodule Solitary Pulmonary
  • Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Keywords

  • Lung cancer screening
  • Biomarkers of lung cancer
  • Circulating tumor DNA
  • Low dose computed tomography of lung
  • Pulmonary nodule
03

In context

Solitary Pulmonary Nodule

93 studies on the registry are indexed under Solitary Pulmonary Nodule; 20 are open to participants now.

This study's planned enrollment of 1,440 is above the median of 401 across 45 observational studies indexed under Solitary Pulmonary Nodule.

Browse Solitary Pulmonary Nodule studies →

Lead sponsor

University of California, San Francisco is the lead sponsor of 2,169 studies on the registry; 372 are open to participants now.

Of its 267 completed or terminated interventional studies of FDA-regulated products, 202 (76%) have results posted.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

04

Who can participate

Ages eligible
40 Years and older
Sexes eligible
All
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

This is a prospective observational study that will follow patients who undergo lung cancer screening at the San Francisco VA Medical Center, UCSF Medical Center, and the San Francisco General Hospital.

Go through the criteria one by one — yes, no or not sure — and take the list to your doctor or the study team. Kept in this browser only.

Inclusion criteria

  • Age ≥ 40 years
  • Ability to understand and provide written
  • Willingness to comply with study protocols and provide blood samples.
  • Willingness to complete 3-year clinical follow up

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Active non-cutaneous within the past 5 years as per medical record or patient report.
  • Exclusion criteria for possible follow-up visit blood draw:
  • Anemia - measured by hematocrit level of less than 30%, measured after the first blood draw.
  • Malnourishment - determined by less than 19. If subject has BMI greater or equal to 19, but has a history of malnourishment, study staff will measure albumin level of subject's blood after initial blood draw. Albumin level must be greater than 2.5 mg per deciliter, or subject will be excluded.
  • Severe (COPD) - defined by Gold Stage IV.
  • Unstable heart conditions - defined by stable or unstable angina, recent myocardial infarction (within the last 2 years), active congestive heart failure, ischemic cardiomyopathy, or history of complications because of previous blood donation.
  • Liver cirrhosis.
Terms in these criteria, in plain language(4)

Underlined terms in the criteria open these too. Explained by clinicaltrials.gg, not part of the registry record. The study team decides who can take part.

Informed consent

Before you join, the study team explains what taking part involves — its purpose, what happens, the risks and possible benefits — and answers your questions, so you can decide freely. Consent is usually recorded on a form (the informed consent form, ICF) signed by you or, where the law allows, by someone legally authorised to decide for you.

You can keep asking questions during the study, you are told of new information that matters, and you can choose to leave at any time.

Cancer (malignancy)

Malignancy means cancer. Criteria about another or earlier malignancy ask whether you have had a different cancer, usually within a set number of years.

Some are commonly allowed, such as treated skin cancers other than melanoma and early cancers removed completely — check the exceptions this study lists.

BMI (body mass index)

Weight in kilograms divided by height in metres squared. Example: 70 kg and 1.75 m gives 70 ÷ (1.75 × 1.75) ≈ 22.9.

What counts as overweight or obesity differs between countries (some use lower cut-offs), so go by the range the study states.

COPD

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: long-term lung disease that makes it hard to breathe out, including emphysema and chronic bronchitis.

05

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
1,440 participants (estimated)
Target follow-up
3 Years
Patient registry
Yes
Biospecimen retention
Samples with dna

Groups and cohorts

  • Cohort 1A: Benign nodule on screening CT

    High-risk patients eligible for lung cancer screening but with negative radiographic findings on CT screening (Lung RADS ≤2). 1. ≥30 pack-year history of cigarette smoking 2. ≥55 years of age 3. Current smoker or quit within the past 15 years

    Diagnostic Test: Guardant Health ct-DNA LUNAR assay

  • Cohort 1B: Incidental benign nodule

    Patients with lung nodules ≥ 6 mm on routine (non-lung cancer screening) CT evaluation deemed suspicious for malignancy by initial physician judgment but not malignant by ≥2 years of radiographic stability and consensus clinical opinion. 1- Age ≥40 years.

    Diagnostic Test: Guardant Health ct-DNA LUNAR assay

  • Cohort IC: Presumed lung cancer

    Patients with lung cancer (histologically proven or presumed by consensus opinion of tumor board); prior to definitive therapy. 1- Age ≥40 years.

    Diagnostic Test: Guardant Health ct-DNA LUNAR assay

  • Cohort 2A: Suspicious nodule

    High-risk patients with newly diagnosed suspicious nodule of Lung RADS ≥3 on CT screening. 1. ≥30 pack-year history of cigarette smoking 2. ≥55 years of age 3. Current smoker or quit within the past 15 years

    Diagnostic Test: Guardant Health ct-DNA LUNAR assay

  • Cohort 2B: Suspicious incidental nodule

    Patients with newly diagnosed incidentally-found lung nodules ≥ 6 mm on routine CT evaluation deemed suspicious for malignancy by physician judgment. 1- Age ≥40 years.

    Diagnostic Test: Guardant Health ct-DNA LUNAR assay

  • Cohort 2C: Post-treatment lung cancer

    Patients with previously treated lung cancer (histologically proven or by consensus opinion); status-post completion of definitive therapy (resection +/- chemotherapy or SBRT with curative intent) within the previous year with no current evidence of disease. 1- Age ≥40 years.

    Diagnostic Test: Guardant Health ct-DNA LUNAR assay

Interventions

  • Diagnostic testGuardant Health ct-DNA LUNAR assay

    Guardant Health is focused on conquering cancer by using its breakthrough blood-based assays, vast data sets, and advanced analytics. In 2016, it announced Project LUNAR, an effort to apply Guardant Health's technology platform to early detection, recurrence monitoring, and assessing minimal residual disease.

    Also known as: Liquid biopsy Using NGS to Assay high-Risk patients

06

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Sensitivity and specificity of ct-DNA LUNAR Assay

    Estimation of the ctDNA assay's clinical sensitivity and specificity in patients with lung cancer as proven by histology or tumor board consensus opinion\* and in patients with lung nodule ≥6 mm but without cancer as proven by extended CT screening follow-up\*\*. \*Patients may be treated with curative-intent Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) without tissue confirmation IF pretest probability for lung cancer by tumor board consensus opinion is ≥90% and the biopsy risk is high.

    Time frame: Extended CT screening follow-up defined by documentation of ≥3 years of radiographic stability and/or consensus clinical opinion by tumor board.

  2. Prospective negative predictive value of ct-DNA LUNAR assay

    Estimation of the ctDNA assay's clinical predictive value relative to standard of care diagnostic work-up in suspicious nodule adjudication in both the high-risk and general populations (the clinical applications of interest).

    Time frame: Extended CT screening follow-up defined by documentation of ≥3 years of radiographic stability and/or consensus clinical opinion by tumor board.

07

Study locations

3 of 3 sites recruiting
08

References and documents

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No

No publications or documents are linked to this record.

09

Updates

1 registry update since Sep 25, 2026
Enrollment
590→1440
Oct 14, 2026
Show all 1 update
  1. Oct 14, 2026
    Enrollment 590→1440
    + 1 other change: verification date

From the registry record's own update history. This site started tracking changes on Sep 25, 2026; for anything earlier, see the record history on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

10

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT03774758
Collaborators
Northern California Institute of Research and Education, Guardant Health, Inc.
Responsible party
Sponsor
First posted
Dec 13, 2018
Start date
Dec 17, 2017
Primary completion
Dec 31, 2030 (estimated)
Completion
Dec 31, 2030 (estimated)
Last update
Oct 14, 2026

Study contacts

Mehrdad Arjomandi, MD
Contact
cancertrials@ucsf.edu
877-827-3222
Mehrdad Arjomandi, M.D.
principal investigator · University of California, San Francisco

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

Interested in this study?

Eligibility is decided by the study team. Share this record with your doctor or contact the team directly.

Contact study team

Follow this study

Get an email when the registry record changes — status, dates, results — or when someone posts here.

Sign in to follow

Discussion

Questions and observations about this study, from anyone following it. Not medical advice, and not a channel to the study team — their contact details are on the registry record.

Sign in to join the discussion. Reading takes no account; posting does. You choose a display name, and a pseudonym is the default.

Nothing here yet. If you are running this trial, taking part in it, or weighing whether to, this is the place to say so.

Start the discussion