ClinicalTrials.gg
CompletedNCT01162265PREDICTUpdated Oct 1, 2020

Prognostic Value of Interferon Gamma Release Assays in Predicting Active Tuberculosis Among Individuals With, or at Risk of, Latent Tuberculosis Infection

An observational study in Tuberculosis and Latent Tuberculosis, sponsored by Public Health England. Completed at 3 sites in United Kingdom. Open to participants aged 16 Years and older, including healthy volunteers. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2020-10-01.

Primary conditionLatent TuberculosisRegistry: TuberculosisReclassifiedWhy we changed it
Registry
Tuberculosis — the first condition term the registry derived for this study.
ClinicalTrials.gg
Latent Tuberculosis
Why
  1. The study's listed conditions name Latent Tuberculosis, a narrower term within Tuberculosis.
Confidence
High: the new condition is named in the study's own listed conditions. Of 351 hand-checked studies reclassified this way, 68% were exactly right and 84% in the right disease family; the registry's first term was right for 5% (measured 2026-10-21). How we classify →
Wrong?
Tell us the study's main condition →

Sponsored by Public Health England · Observational

Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
10,000
Ages
16 Years and older
Sex
All
01

Where this study stands

Counted across the records on this site · 2026-11-12

Among 13 studies in Latent Tuberculosis with a site in United Kingdom — 3 open to participants now, 3 under way, none of them phase 3. Latent Tuberculosis · United Kingdom.

Started
2010
the only one that year
Observational
9 of 13
3 open now
Registered
3rd of 13
by date
Lead sponsor
2 of 13
Public Health England

Among the 13 studies in Latent Tuberculosis with a site in United Kingdom, this one is the only one that started in 2010, is one of 9 observational ones, and was the 3rd registered.

By phase

13 studies; the count open now beside each. This study's row is marked.

Observationalthis study9 · 3 open
No phase4 · 0 open

By the year they started

First in 2002; this study’s year is marked. 1 started in 2010.

What they test

Size and results

Median enrollment 270 across the 4 interventional studies, 1,000 across the 9 observational. Of the 8 that completed or were terminated, 1 (13%) have results posted.

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Watch this landscapeDownload CSVWith an account: a weekly mail of what changed among 13 studies in Latent Tuberculosis with a site in United Kingdom, or all of them as a file.
02

Study summary

The objective of this study is to assess the efficacy of the two current TB (tuberculosis) blood tests (Interferon Gamma Release Assays (IGRA)) compared with the standard skin test (Mantoux Tuberculin Skin Test (TST)), for predicting active tuberculosis among those at increased risk of TB. Those at increased risk are defined as either newly arrived immigrants or people who have been in contact with TB cases. The study will also provide information on the cost effectiveness of different testing strategies, such as the two step testing approach recommended by NICE. The study is to be funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme.

10,000 participants will be recruited from 12 hospitals and a network of GP surgeries in London. All participants will have the skin test and blood taken for both assays. Disease status of participants will then be followed up for an average of 24 months using the national register of clinical reports, a phone call and the national microbiological database. The risk of developing active disease is highest in the first two years after exposure. During followup there will be no additional diagnostic procedures unless symptoms occur, i.e. in line with current NICE policy. A sub group of patients, selected as a random 25% of participants, will have a repeat IGRA test shortly after the first test to investigate whether the skin test affects the result of the blood test.

Read the detailed description

DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of individuals (> or = 16 yrs) who are: (a) close contacts of TB cases or (b) new entrants from high incidence countries (>40/100000). SETTING: London TB clinics. NE London TB Network Primary Care Practices. All study sites will be coordinated from the HPA Centre for Infections.

HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES (LTBI MEASURES):Participants will be tested by Mantoux TST and two IGRA tests(Quantiferon-Gold In Tube ELISA) and ELISpot assay (same as Tspot.TB). A 25ml blood specimen will be collected with the residuum, after IGRA testing, full blood count and repetition of indeterminate assays, being stored for future research.

All tests will be conducted using standardised protocols.(6) ACTION AFTER TESTING: This will follow existing NICE guidance. (1;2) A) If negative by TST and IGRA, follow up only. B) If positive by either TST or IGRA tests, active TB will be excluded. Those without active TB will be followed up. C) If positive by IGRA \& TST test and > 35 yrs, follow up only and for those 16-34 yrs, chemoprophylaxis will be offered with balanced advice about potential benefits/risks.

PRIMARY OUTCOME: Development of active TB. Prognostic values of tests quantified as incidence rate ratios (RR) among contacts and new entrants. SECONDARY OUTCOME: Side effects from chemoprophylaxis.

FOLLOW UP: average of 24 months from the date of IGRA/TST testing. a) phone call to GP and or patients at 24 months. b) national enhanced TB surveillance. c) national database of culture proven TB. d) Clinic records. ADDITIONAL DATA:

collected on all potential source cases and contacts using a questionnaire and medical records review (see below). HIV status will be determined at the end of the follow-up period through anonymised record linkage with the national HIV surveillance system, which is reliable.(4) DNA finger printing data, from the national strain typing database, will be utilised to ascertain transmission between index cases and subsequent diagnoses among contacts.

ANALYSIS PLAN: The predictive performance of each test (TST, ELISpot and ELISA) will be summarised as the RR of test positives in those developing active TB compared to not (analogous to positive likelihood ratio: TPR/FPR). GEE Poisson regression will compare disease RRs between tests accounting for length of follow-up and exploiting within patient comparisons of tests. Absolute risk of disease in different groups will be described in those with no evidence of LTBI and those with LTBI who have / have not received chemoprophylaxis. Other analyses: HIV infected and risk factors for LTBI.

SAMPLE SIZE: Assuming a LTBI rate of 30%, 5% progressing to active TB in 2 years if untreated and 20% loss to follow-up, simulations indicate a cohort of 5,000 would have 80% power of detecting clinically important differences in predictive performance (P\<0.05) that would arise from differences in sensitivity and specificity of 10% between tests for detecting LTBI. 50% of TB contacts and new entrants are aged >35yrs, so a cohort of 10,000 identifies 5,000 for the primary analysis of progression without treatment. Testing and follow-up of 10,000 would allow appropriately powered secondary analyses a) comparing contacts and immigrants, b) estimating progression on treatment using regression models to adjust for test dependent treatment decisions.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: The cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies for patients with suspected LTBI will be assessed. A decision model will be developed to estimate the costs (£) and health effects (QALYs) of the following strategies: a) no screening, b) TST alone, c) different IGRA tests (ELISA or ELISpot), and d) TST followed by IGRA if positive. These strategies will be compared for: contacts and new entrants stratified by age and baseline risk. The model will use data from the cohort study and the published literature, and will follow the NICE reference case (5). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis will be used to assess uncertainty. Benefits due to prevention of transmission will be estimated.

03

Conditions studied

  • Tuberculosis
  • Latent Tuberculosis

Browse trials for

Keywords

  • Tuberculosis
  • IGRA
  • latent
04

In context

Latent Tuberculosis Reclassified

199 studies on the registry are indexed under Latent Tuberculosis; 48 are open to participants now.

This study's enrollment of 10,000 is above the median of 260 across 82 observational studies indexed under Latent Tuberculosis.

Browse Latent Tuberculosis studies →

Lead sponsor

Public Health England is the lead sponsor of 37 studies on the registry; none are open to participants now.

Compared within Latent Tuberculosis, this study's primary condition as ClinicalTrials.gg classifies it; the registry's first condition term is Tuberculosis. The counts are of registry records indexed under each term, refreshed daily. How we classify →

05

Who can participate

Ages eligible
16 Years and older
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
Yes
Sampling method
Probability sample

Study population

Those who are close contacts of active tuberculosis cases or those who have are new entrants to the UK from high incidence countries (>40/100000).

Go through the criteria one by one — yes, no or not sure — and take the list to your doctor or the study team. Kept in this browser only.

Inclusion criteria

  • Contacts of all active TB (pulmonary and extrapulmonary) patients. (Contacts will include all individuals with a cumulative duration of exposure of greater than eight hours to the relevant index case in a confined space during the period of infectiousness (prior to initiation of treatment) who attend designated clinics.
  • New entrants from high incidence countries (incidence of TB of >40/100000) who attend designated clinics

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Patients who are unable to give
  • Children under 16 years of age
  • Individuals found to have active TB at the time of screening
Terms in these criteria, in plain language(1)

Underlined terms in the criteria open these too. Explained by clinicaltrials.gg, not part of the registry record. The study team decides who can take part.

Informed consent

Before you join, the study team explains what taking part involves — its purpose, what happens, the risks and possible benefits — and answers your questions, so you can decide freely. Consent is usually recorded on a form (the informed consent form, ICF) signed by you or, where the law allows, by someone legally authorised to decide for you.

You can keep asking questions during the study, you are told of new information that matters, and you can choose to leave at any time.

06

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
10,000 participants (actual)
Biospecimen retention
Samples with dna

Groups and cohorts

  • Contacts

    Contacts of active cases of tuberculosis

  • new entrants

    new entrants from high incidence (\>40/100000) countries.

07

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Development of active TB. Prognostic values of tests quantified as incidence rate ratios (RR) among contacts and new entrants

    Time frame: two years

Secondary outcomes

  1. Side effects from chemoprophylaxis

    Time frame: two years

08

Study locations

3 sites
  • Ealing Hospital
    Southall, London UB1 3HW, United Kingdom
  • St George's Hospital
    Tooting, London SW17 0QT, United Kingdom
  • Homerton Hospital
    London, E9 6SR, United Kingdom
09

References and documents

Publications

  • Lule SA, Gupta RK, Krutikov M, Jackson C, Southern J, Abubakar I. The relationship between social risk factors and latent tuberculosis infection among individuals residing in England: a cross-sectional study. BMJ Glob Health. 2020 Dec;5(12):e003550. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003550. PubMed 33293291 ↗
  • Katelaris AL, Jackson C, Southern J, Gupta RK, Drobniewski F, Lalvani A, Lipman M, Mangtani P, Abubakar I. Effectiveness of BCG Vaccination Against Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Adults: A Cross-sectional Analysis of a UK-Based Cohort. J Infect Dis. 2020 Jan 1;221(1):146-155. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiz430. PubMed 31504674 ↗
  • Abubakar I, Lalvani A, Southern J, Sitch A, Jackson C, Onyimadu O, Lipman M, Deeks JJ, Griffiths C, Bothamley G, Kon OM, Hayward A, Lord J, Drobniewski F. Two interferon gamma release assays for predicting active tuberculosis: the UK PREDICT TB prognostic test study. Health Technol Assess. 2018 Oct;22(56):1-96. doi: 10.3310/hta22560. PubMed 30334521 ↗
  • Abubakar I, Drobniewski F, Southern J, Sitch AJ, Jackson C, Lipman M, Deeks JJ, Griffiths C, Bothamley G, Lynn W, Burgess H, Mann B, Imran A, Sridhar S, Tsou CY, Nikolayevskyy V, Rees-Roberts M, Whitworth H, Kon OM, Haldar P, Kunst H, Anderson S, Hayward A, Watson JM, Milburn H, Lalvani A; PREDICT Study Team. Prognostic value of interferon-gamma release assays and tuberculin skin test in predicting the development of active tuberculosis (UK PREDICT TB): a prospective cohort study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2018 Oct;18(10):1077-1087. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30355-4. Epub 2018 Aug 30. PubMed 30174209 ↗
  • Jackson C, Southern J, Lalvani A, Drobniewski F, Griffiths CJ, Lipman M, Bothamley GH, Deeks JJ, Imran A, Kon OM, Mpofu S, Nikolayevskyy V, Rees-Roberts M, Sitch A, Sridhar S, Tsou CY, Whitworth H, Abubakar I. Diabetes mellitus and latent tuberculosis infection: baseline analysis of a large UK cohort. Thorax. 2019 Jan;74(1):91-94. doi: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2017-211124. Epub 2018 May 15. PubMed 29764958 ↗

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No

10

Timeline

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
Not marked actual or estimatedDates not marked actual or estimated

The record gives a start of Aug 2010, a primary completion of Jun 2015 and a completion of Jun 2016. It does not say whether these dates are actual or estimated.

How these figures are worked out, and which studies are left out of them.

Registered
Jul 12, 2010
First posted
Jul 14, 2010
Start
Aug 2010
Primary completionActual
Jun 30, 2015
CompletionActual
Jun 30, 2016
Last update
Oct 1, 2020
What these dates mean
Start.
When the first participant enrolled; while estimated, when the study expects to open to recruitment.
Primary completion.
When the last participant was examined or treated to collect data for the study's main question, its primary outcome. A study that stopped early gives the date its data collection stopped.
Completion.
When the last participant's last visit took place, for every outcome, secondary ones and side effects included: the end of the study. Often later than primary completion, sometimes the same day.
Actual and Est.
Actual means the registry says the date has happened. Est. (estimated) is a date the sponsor plans or expects. It can still move, and the sponsor is expected to change it to actual once it has passed.
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Oct 1, 2020, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
11

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT01162265
Lead sponsor
Public Health England
Responsible party
Sponsor
First posted
Jul 14, 2010
Start date
Aug 2010
Primary completion
Jun 30, 2015
Completion
Jun 30, 2016
Last update
Oct 1, 2020

Study contacts

Ajit Lalvani, MD, PhD
principal investigator · Imperial College London

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
Yes
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

Not currently enrolling

This study is completed, as verified in May 2017. You cannot join it, but the record below documents what was studied.

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