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Not yet recruitingNCT07880678D-TECTUpdated Oct 19, 2026

Risk Stratification for Adverse Events in End-Stage Liver Disease

An observational study in Decompensated Cirrhosis, sponsored by The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University. Not yet recruiting. Open to participants aged 18 Years to 80 Years. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-10-19.

Sponsored by The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University · Observational

Updated Oct 19, 2026Newly registeredGo to Updates ↓
Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
2,235
Ages
18 Years to 80 Years
Sex
All
01

Study summary

Study Goal The goal of this multicenter, prospective observational cohort study is to develop and validate a multimodal predictive model that integrates portal hypertension, inflammation, and liver function indicators to predict the risk of adverse clinical outcomes (e.g., further decompensation, mortality, recompensation, and liver failure) in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Target Population The study will enroll adults aged 18-80 years with chronic liver disease of any etiology who have experienced at least one decompensating event (e.g., ascites, variceal bleeding, overt hepatic encephalopathy, jaundice, or infection requiring treatment) at or prior to enrollment.

Main Questions It Aims to Answer

  1. How accurately can the multimodal model predict the risk of further decompensation (e.g., recurrent ascites, rebleeding, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or hepatorenal syndrome-AKI) within 1 year of enrollment?
  2. Can the model reliably predict 6-week, 1-year, and 2-year liver-related mortality, as well as the incidence of liver failure and the probability of recompensation (per Baveno VII criteria), and does it outperform traditional scoring systems?

Comparison Group Researchers will compare the performance of the newly developed multimodal model against established traditional prognostic tools, including the MELD, MELD-Na, and Child-Pugh scores, to assess whether the new model provides superior predictive accuracy, better risk reclassification, and greater clinical net benefit.

Participants Will

  • Provide written informed consent before any study-related data collection.
  • Undergo baseline and routine 3-month follow-up assessments (aligned with their standard clinical care) over a total of 3 years, during which clinical data, laboratory tests, and imaging results will be recorded.
  • Voluntarily provide additional biospecimens (peripheral blood 10 mL, 3 stool tubes, and 10 mL urine) at baseline and during return visits for exploratory biomarker and multi-omics analysis (participants who provide samples receive a ¥200 nutritional subsidy; those undergoing clinically indicated MRI also receive free MRE testing).
02

Conditions studied

  • Decompensated Cirrhosis

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Keywords

  • decompensation
  • recompensation
  • algorithm
  • portal hypertension
  • imflamation
03

In context

Hypertension, Portal

345 studies on the registry are indexed under Hypertension, Portal; 110 are open to participants now.

This study's planned enrollment of 2,235 is above the median of 151 across 128 observational studies indexed under Hypertension, Portal.

Browse Hypertension, Portal studies →

Lead sponsor

The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University is the lead sponsor of 99 studies on the registry; 29 are open to participants now.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

04

Who can participate

Ages eligible
18 Years to 80 Years
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
No
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

Adults (18-80 years) with decompensated cirrhosis of any etiology, having at least one prior decompensation event (ascites, variceal bleeding, encephalopathy, jaundice >3 mg/dL, or infection). Excludes active malignancy (except curable skin/thyroid), prior transplant, critical illness (survival \<72h), and pregnancy.

Go through the criteria one by one — yes, no or not sure — and take the list to your doctor or the study team. Kept in this browser only.

Inclusion criteria

  • Age ≥18 years and ≤80 years at the time of signing informed consent, regardless of sex.
  • Diagnosis of chronic liver disease of any etiology (including but not limited to viral hepatitis, alcoholic liver disease, fatty liver disease, etc.).
  • Have experienced at least one decompensating event prior to or at enrollment, defined as any of the following:

    ① Gastroesophageal variceal bleeding confirmed by endoscopy;

    ② Overt hepatic encephalopathy;

    ③ Moderate to large ascites confirmed by imaging, or requiring paracentesis for therapeutic drainage;

    ④ Jaundice (serum total bilirubin >3 mg/dL);

    ⑤ Infection requiring treatment.

  • Voluntarily sign a written informed consent form.

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Diagnosis of malignant tumor (including solid tumors and hematological malignancies) at enrollment, except for curable thyroid cancer and basal cell carcinoma of the skin.
  • History of liver transplantation.
  • Hemodynamically unstable with an expected survival of less than 72 hours.
  • Pregnant or lactating women.
  • Any other condition that, in the investigator's opinion, makes the subject unsuitable for participation (e.g., inability to comply with follow-up, severe psychiatric disorders, etc.).
05

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
2,235 participants (estimated)
Patient registry
No

Interventions

  • Diagnostic testRoutine Clinical Care with Biospecimen Collection and Free MRE Testing

    Participants receive standard-of-care medical management for decompensated cirrhosis, including regular 3-month follow-up visits, laboratory tests, and imaging examinations, as determined by their treating physicians per clinical practice guidelines. No study-specific therapeutic interventions, randomization, or treatment allocation are applied. In addition, participants who provide voluntary informed consent will undergo the following study-related procedures: Free magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) examination, offered to participants who are clinically scheduled for a routine abdominal MRI, to assess liver stiffness and fibrosis non-invasively at no cost. All data collected (demographics, clinical history, laboratory results, imaging findings, and patient-reported outcome scales) are derived from routine clinical care and are used solely for prognostic model development and validation.

06

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Incidence of Further Decompensation at 1 Year

    Further decompensation is defined per Baveno VII criteria as any of the following: (1) occurrence of a second portal hypertension-related decompensating event (ascites, variceal bleeding, or hepatic encephalopathy); (2) recurrent variceal bleeding, recurrent ascites requiring ≥3 large-volume paracenteses within 1 year, recurrent hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, and/or hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury; or (3) development of ascites or hepatic encephalopathy after surgery in patients with variceal bleeding as the sole prior event.

    Time frame: Within 12 months after enrollment

Secondary outcomes

  1. 6-Week Liver-Related Mortality Rate

    Death directly attributed to liver disease or its immediate complications (e.g., liver failure, variceal rebleeding, infections).

    Time frame: Within 6 weeks after enrollment

  2. 1-Year Liver-Related Mortality Rate

    Death directly attributed to liver disease or its immediate complications (e.g., liver failure, variceal rebleeding, infections).

    Time frame: Within 12 months after enrollment

  3. Incidence of Liver Failure at 1 Year

    Defined per 2023 EASL ACLF criteria: total bilirubin ≥12 mg/dL plus any of: (1) INR ≥2.5; (2) serum creatinine ≥2.0 mg/dL or need for RRT; (3) hepatic encephalopathy ≥ grade 3 (West Haven); (4) need for vasopressors; or (5) PaO₂/FiO₂ ≤200 or SpO₂/FiO₂ ≤214.

    Time frame: Within 12 months after enrollment

  4. Recompensation Rate at 2 Years

    Per Baveno VII consensus: sustained resolution of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and variceal bleeding with stable improvement in liver function for ≥12 months after etiological treatment.

    Time frame: Within 24 months after enrollment

  5. Recompensation Rate at 3 Years

    Per Baveno VII consensus: sustained resolution of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and variceal bleeding with stable improvement in liver function for ≥12 months after etiological treatment.

    Time frame: Within 36 months after enrollment

07

Study locations

No study locations are listed for this record.

08

Timeline

1 registry update since Sep 25, 2026
ElapsedEstimatedEstimated, not yet reachedSimilar studies: half by the dot; the band is the middle halfHalf of similar studies reached it by the dot; the band is the middle half, from a quarter to three quarters

Start is estimated for Oct 2026; primary completion for Sep 2029, 35 months later.

Of 61 non-industry observational studies under Hypertension, Portal, half reached primary completion within 43 months of starting (the median), counting those still running; a quarter within 30 and three quarters within 256. This study's planned 35 months is below that.

Counting every sponsor, half of 64 studies reached it within 43 months; a quarter within 30 and three quarters within 256.

How these figures are worked out, and which studies are left out of them.

Registered
Oct 12, 2026
First posted
Oct 19, 2026
StartEst.
Oct 1, 2026
Primary completionEst.
Sep 30, 2029
CompletionEst.
Sep 30, 2031
Last update
Oct 19, 2026
What these dates mean
Start.
When the first participant enrolled; while estimated, when the study expects to open to recruitment.
Primary completion.
When the last participant was examined or treated to collect data for the study's main question, its primary outcome. A study that stopped early gives the date its data collection stopped.
Completion.
When the last participant's last visit took place, for every outcome, secondary ones and side effects included: the end of the study. Often later than primary completion, sometimes the same day.
Actual and Est.
Actual means the registry says the date has happened. Est. (estimated) is a date the sponsor plans or expects. It can still move, and the sponsor is expected to change it to actual once it has passed.
Registered
First appeared on the registry. No changes since
Oct 19, 2026
Show all 1 update
  1. Oct 19, 2026
    First appeared on the registry

From the registry record's own update history. This site started tracking changes on Sep 25, 2026; for anything earlier, see the record history on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

09

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT07880678
Lead sponsor
The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University
Responsible party
JinjunChen (the institutional review boards (IRBs) of the Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University) — Principal investigator
First posted
Oct 19, 2026
Start date
Oct 1, 2026 (estimated)
Primary completion
Sep 30, 2029 (estimated)
Completion
Sep 30, 2031 (estimated)
Last update
Oct 19, 2026

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

Not currently enrolling

This study is not yet recruiting, as verified in Sep 2026. You cannot join it, but the record below documents what was studied.

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