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Not yet recruitingNCT07799168DENEMUpdated Sep 2, 2026

Investigating and Modelling the Natural History of Dengue in Hospitalised Patients to Improve Future Research

An observational study in Dengue, sponsored by Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine. Not yet recruiting at 1 site in Vietnam. Open to participants aged 16 Years and older, including healthy volunteers. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-09-02.

Sponsored by Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine · Observational

Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
235
Ages
16 Years and older
Sex
All
01

Study summary

The goal of this observational study is to investigate the natural history of dengue in hospitalised patients in Vietnam, to better understand the disease process, and utilise the data to improve future clinical trials. The main questions it aims to answer are:

In participants hospitalised with dengue in Vietnam:

  1. How does dengue illness change over time, particularly the development and recovery of vascular leak (where blood vessels leak)?
  2. Can a new statistical approaches describe dengue illness accurately and be suitable for use in future clinical trials?
  3. Which blood biomarkers are associated with worsening or improving dengue illness, and what do they tell us about how severe dengue develops? Could these blood biomarkers act as reliable indicators of disease severity and recovery, making them useful outcome measures in future dengue treatment trials?
  4. How accurately do simplified diagnostic tests identify dengue compared with laboratory reference methods, and are they suitable for use in research and clinical settings in low- and middle-income countries?

Participants will be observed without any intervention throughout their hospitalisation. Participants will be be asked to provide informed consent for:

  • Recording of their routine clinical data
  • Regular blood tests
  • Regular ultrasound scans
  • A follow up appointment.
Read the detailed description

Dengue is a life-threatening infection caused by a virus, spread between humans by the bite of mosquitoes. It is present throughout the tropics, including in Vietnam, where cases have dramatically increased in recent years. Dengue causes severe illness predominantly through vascular leak, where patients' blood vessels break down, becoming leaky, leading to fluid from the vessels moving into tissues and organs such as the lungs.

However, it is still not fully understand how the virus causes vascular leak, or in which patients it is most likely to occur in. There are no licensed treatments for vascular leak. This is because the mechanism of vascular leak is incompletely understood, making therapeutic targeting difficult. Additionally, when drugs are trialled, many trials have been poorly designed and not included enough patients.

To answer our research questions, the investigators will recruit 142 patients admitted to hospital with dengue in Nha Trang, Vietnam who have dengue vascular leak. If they are happy to enter the study, data will be recorded that is already being collected as part of their hospital admission; this will include clinical data (such as blood pressure, pulse and treatments given) and the results of their blood tests. Investigators will also run tests beyond what they would normally have in hospital; this will include the results of regular ultrasound scans and biomarker blood tests (small molecules that can be detected in their blood in response to stress and vascular leak). Most patients have blood tests daily in hospital, and clinicians will aim to take the extra tubes of blood required at the same time, to minimise the number of extra procedures requested from participants.

Investigators will put this data it into a statistical model of dengue vascular leak they have been developing, called a multi-state model. These models have previously been used in other areas of medicine, but this would be their first application in dengue and infectious diseases research. Multi-state models aim to track how patients move through different stages of illness over time. Models such as this make better use of all the information collected during a patient's illness. Rather than only looking at a single outcome, such as whether a patient had recovered by a certain day, or how long recovery took, they track how patients move through different stages of dengue over time and how long they spend in each stage. This may give a more complete picture of how treatments affect the course of illness. If successful, it could improve how future dengue clinical trials are designed, helping researchers detect whether new treatments work more quickly and with fewer volunteers.

Investigators will also use data and samples collected from this study to explore why vascular leak occurs and evaluate new ways of diagnosing dengue, particularly in low-resource settings. To achieve this, investigators will need to compare patients who have dengue to people who have not got dengue, looking for differences. As such 93 people who do not have dengue (called "control" participants) will be recruited. Some will have a fever from another cause, and others will be healthy volunteers. Comparing these control populations with patients who have dengue helps us understand which findings are specific to dengue and how accurate new dengue tests are. People in these groups will only have a single small blood sample taken and will not receive any treatment or need follow-up visits.

Overall, this study aims to support the development of better treatments and more efficient clinical trials for dengue.

02

Conditions studied

  • Dengue

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Keywords

  • dengue
  • vascular leak
  • multi-state models
03

Who can participate

Ages eligible
16 Years and older
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
Yes
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

Patients presenting to Khánh Hòa Hospital of Tropical Diseases, Nha Trang, Vietnam.

Eligibility criteria

Inclusion Criteria (hospitalised cohort):

  • Meet the 2009 WHO criteria for dengue with warning signs or severe dengue AND
  • Are being admitted as an inpatient AND
  • Have documented standard-of-care laboratory confirmation of dengue (defined as either positive by molecular assay (e.g. reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) OR positive by antigen testing (non-structural protein-1) OR positive Immunoglobulin M (IgM) combined with clinical diagnosis of dengue by attending physician. AND
  • Were born in Vietnam (only for platelet phenomics substudy)

Inclusion Criteria (diagnostic control cohort):

  • Have a documented fever at assessment AND
  • Have a documented negative standard-of-care dengue test, with no clinical diagnosis of dengue AND
  • Were born in Vietnam (only for platelet phenomics substudy)

Inclusion Criteria (platelet control cohort):

  • Vietnamese-born adults ≥16 years of age with no history of febrile illness in the preceding 14 days.

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Receiving an experimental dengue treatment during their illness.
  • Inability to provide written, informed consent AND no legal guardian able to provide written, informed consent in the event of incapacity.
  • Clinician-determined unsuitability for recruitment.

Exclusion Criteria (platelet substudy only):

  • Any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory, antiplatelet or anticoagulant medication received in preceding 7 days.
04

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
235 participants (estimated)
Patient registry
No
Biospecimen retention
Samples without dna

Groups and cohorts

  • Hospitalised Cohort

    Patients hospitalised with dengue with warning signs or severe dengue

  • Diagnostic Control Cohort

    Patients with non-dengue febrile illness

  • Platelet Control Cohort

    Healthy Vietnamese volunteers

05

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Degree of vascular leak

    Presence and severity of vascular leak (none, moderate, severe) per Tomashek et al. 2018 consensus definitions - composite of change of haematocrit from baseline, presence of ascites/pleural effusion by point of care ultrasound and presence of respiratory/cardiovascular compromise.

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness, or discharge

Secondary outcomes

  1. Multi-state model evaluation - precision

    Confidence in model parameters: 95% confidence interval width around 3- and 5-day probabilities of all state transition pairs (probability with 95% confidence interval)

    Time frame: Assessed at 3 days and 5 days post admission

  2. Multi-state model evaluation: model fit

    Goodness of fit of model compared to observed data, as assessed by Akaike information criteria (AIC) values, Bayesian information criteria (BIC) values and Likelihood-ratio test (p-value)

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness or discharge

  3. Viral dynamics

    Dengue viral load by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (copies per microlitre)

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness, or discharge

  4. Degree of thrombocytopenia

    Presence and severirty of thrombocytopenia (none, moderate, severe) per Tomashek et al. 2018 consensus definitions - measured by platelet count (10\^9/L)

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness or discharge

  5. Degree of bleeding

    Presence and severirty of bleeding (none, moderate, severe) per Tomashek et al. 2018 consensus definitions - composite score measured by presence/absence of clinical bleeding, requirement for local intervention, cardiovascular compromise, requirement for blood transfusion.

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness or discharge

  6. Modified sequenetial organ failure score (mSOFA)

    mSOFA score composite score (0-24) with 6 systems assessed, each component contributing 0-4 points to the overal score. Systems assessed: respiratory system (peripheral saturations of oxygen/fraction inspired oxygen, mmHg), Coagulation (platelet count / microlitre), Liver function (Bilirubin, mg/dl), Cardiovascular system (mean arterial pressure / pulse pressure, mmHg), Central nervous system (glasgow coma score), renal function (creatinin, mg/dL or urine output, mL/day)

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness or discharge

  7. Volume of Intravenous Fluid Received in 24 hours

    Fluid type and volume (mL)

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness or discharge

  8. Dengue Clinical Severity

    Dengue clinical severity classification per WHO 2009 criteria (dengue without warning signs, dengue with warning signs, severe dengue)

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness or discharge

  9. Concentration of a panel of plasma biomarkers of endothelial dysfunction, inflammation and platelet dysfunction.

    Longitudinal measurement of biomarkers such as Syndecan-1, Angiopoietin 1/2, VCAM-1, CRP, Ferritin, platelet function assay, platelet-leucocyte aggregate assay, platelet receptor panel

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness, or discharge

  10. Performance of plasma biomarkers of dengue vascular leak as robust secondary endpoints in future dengue interventional trials.

    Correlation of biomarker values with clinical and model outcomes

    Time frame: From enrollment until day 10 of illness or discharge

  11. Performance of dengue diagnostic platforms, for use in participant screening in low- and middle-income countries.

    Diagnostic accuracy of novel LAMP assay compared to reference standard and RDT: sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of diagnostic platforms against RT-PCR as reference and RDTs as standard of care.

    Time frame: At enrollment

06

Study locations

1 site
  • Nagasaki University Vietnam Research Station, Nha Trang
    Nha Trang, Vietnam
07

References and documents

Publications

  • McBride A, Chanh HQ, Trieu HT, Tran HB, Anderson KB, Aogo RA, Avirutnan P, Tran LHB, Chan XH, Chandra R, Chang A, Chia PY, Daniel V, Demidova A, Consuegra Rodriguez MP, Figueiredo-Mello C, Garcia-Gallo E, Garrood W, Tam DTH, Jaenisch T, Kain M, Katzelnick L, Lam PK, Leopold SJ, Lim C, M Siqueira A, Malavige GN, Malik S, Merson L, Meyer-Andrieux I, Moorman N, Neal A, Nguyen NM, Ong HC, Pett S, Rojas-Garrido E, Schilling W, Shahrin L, Sjo P, Syed Omar SF, Teixeira M, Tirupakuzhi Vijayaraghavan BK, Villar L, Vuong NL, Waickman A, Wills B, Kestelyn E, Watson J, Munblit DB, Yacoub S. Dengue therapeutics consortium 2025: a global collaboration in action. BMJ Public Health. 2026 Jan 12;4(1):e004043. doi: 10.1136/bmjph-2025-004043. eCollection 2026. PubMed 41561567 ↗
  • Vuong NL, Lam PK, Ming DKY, Duyen HTL, Nguyen NM, Tam DTH, Duong Thi Hue K, Chau NV, Chanpheaktra N, Lum LCS, Pleites E, Simmons CP, Rosenberger KD, Jaenisch T, Bell D, Acestor N, Halleux C, Olliaro PL, Wills BA, Geskus RB, Yacoub S. Combination of inflammatory and vascular markers in the febrile phase of dengue is associated with more severe outcomes. Elife. 2021 Jun 22;10:e67460. doi: 10.7554/eLife.67460. PubMed 34154705 ↗
  • Tomashek KM, Wills B, See Lum LC, Thomas L, Durbin A, Leo YS, de Bosch N, Rojas E, Hendrickx K, Erpicum M, Agulto L, Jaenisch T, Tissera H, Suntarattiwong P, Collers BA, Wallace D, Schmidt AC, Precioso A, Narvaez F, Thomas SJ, Edelman R, Siqueira JB, Cassetti MC, Dempsey W, Gubler DJ. Development of standard clinical endpoints for use in dengue interventional trials. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2018 Oct 4;12(10):e0006497. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006497. eCollection 2018 Oct. PubMed 30286085 ↗

Individual participant data

Plan to share: Yes — Anonymised study results will be made publicly available through scientific publications and, where appropriate, data repositories. Requests from bona fide researchers for access to de-identified participant-level data will be considered on a case-by-case basis, subject to applicable ethical approvals, participant consent, and local and institutional policies.

Supporting information: Study protocol, Analytic code

08

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT07799168
Lead sponsor
Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine
Collaborators
Nagasaki University, Pasteur Institute, Nha Trang
Responsible party
Sponsor
First posted
Sep 2, 2026
Start date
Nov 2026 (estimated)
Primary completion
Apr 2028 (estimated)
Completion
Apr 2028 (estimated)
Last update
Sep 2, 2026

Study contacts

Matthew JW Kain
Contact
matthew.kain@lstmed.ac.uk
+44 151 705 3100

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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