ClinicalTrials.gg
RecruitingNCT07715617FLAREUpdated Jul 20, 2026

Development of a Prediction Score for the Occurrence of Death or Lung Transplantation in Patients With Emphysema Secondary to Alpha-1-anti-tripsin Deficiency

An observational study in Alpha-1-antitrypsin Deficiency, Emphysema and Artificial Intelligence (AI), sponsored by University Hospital, Bordeaux. Recruiting at 4 sites in France. Open to participants aged 18 Years and older. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-07-20.

Sponsored by University Hospital, Bordeaux · Observational

From the registry’s dates

  • Started Feb 2026; still recruiting 8 months later.
Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Retrospective
Enrollment
230
Ages
18 Years and older
Sex
All
01

Study summary

Emphysema linked to alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (DAAT): towards a better prediction of risks Emphysema caused by alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (DAAT) is a rare genetic disorder that can lead to serious complications, such as the need for a lung transplant or death, affecting up to 15% of patients. The only specific treatment available is a weekly infusion of alpha-1-antitrypsin (IV-AAT), an expensive and burdensome therapy.

Currently, there is no reliable model to predict the course of the disease in these patients. Our study, conducted in several French hospitals, aims to develop a prediction tool combining clinical, biological, functional data and advanced medical image analysis (lung CT). This model will make it possible to identify the most at-risk patients, in order to better adapt their care, anticipate transplant needs and avoid unnecessary treatments for low-risk patients.

Ultimately, this approach could also improve access to care for patients who need it most, while optimizing health system resources.

Read the detailed description

Context. Emphysema secondary to alpha-1-anti-trypsin deficiency (AATD) is a genetic rare disease, but with pejorative events such as death or lung transplantation (LT) which affect up to 15% of patients. Aside from standard medical care for COPD management, the only specific treatment as augmentation therapy for severe AATD, is weekly intravenous alpha-1 antitrypsin (IV-AAT) which is still expensive and restrictive. Several prognostic scores for tobacco-related COPD have been developed but, none of them have been validated in AATD, neither have included quantitative chest CT imaging while they have been associated with mortality in emphysema. Therefore, we aim to develop a prediction model combining clinical, biological, functional and quantitative CT data (including radiomics) for mortality or LT to identify at-risk patients with emphysema secondary to AATD.

Methods: From several French hospitals, we'll conduct a multicenter retrospective study based on data collected in usual care among patients over 18-year-old, with an available chest CT. We'll collect clinical data (BMI, mMRC dyspnea scale), respiratory function parameters and quantitative imaging data (including radiomics) from the initial CT from AATD patients secondary to ZZ, Znull, ZMalton, Z and rare mutations. We'll then validate our results on an independent external database from the European AADT cohort (EARCO), with specific dedicated funding.

Perspectives: To develop a prediction model to identify the AATD patients at risk of clinical deterioration, defined by death or LT allowing for personalized care, in order to: 1. anticipate registration on the transplant list, 2. optimize overall management, including pharmacological (IV-AAT) and non-pharmacological management. 3. to avoid cost-prohibitive and constraining IV-AAT infusion for low risk patients For Health policy, finding a way to target high-risk patients may help a better access for IV-AAT to appropriate individuals.

02

Conditions studied

  • Alpha-1-antitrypsin Deficiency
  • Emphysema
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • Predictive Learning Models
  • Mortality Prediction
  • Lung Transplantation
03

In context

alpha 1-Antitrypsin Deficiency

142 studies on the registry are indexed under alpha 1-Antitrypsin Deficiency; 32 are open to participants now.

This study's planned enrollment of 230 is above the median of 160 across 46 observational studies indexed under alpha 1-Antitrypsin Deficiency.

Browse alpha 1-Antitrypsin Deficiency studies →

Lead sponsor

University Hospital, Bordeaux is the lead sponsor of 806 studies on the registry; 197 are open to participants now.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

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Who can participate

Ages eligible
18 Years and older
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
No
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

The subjects included will be any patients followed and diagnosed between 2010 and 2025 in the pulmonology department for emphysema and COPD secondary to alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency ZZ, Znull, ZMalton, Z and rare mutations, based on the diagnosis of emphysema made from an initial thoracic CT scan (+/- 12 months after diagnosis).

Go through the criteria one by one — yes, no or not sure — and take the list to your doctor or the study team. Kept in this browser only.

Inclusion criteria

  • diagnosed between 2010 and 2025

    • in the pulmonology department
    • diagnosis of emphysema and secondary to alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency ZZ, Znull, ZMalton, Z and rare mutations,
    • emphysema according to the initial thoracic CT scan (+/- 12 months after diagnosis).

Exclusion criteria

  • Age \<18 years

    • Patient opposed to the use of their data for research purposes
    • Patient deprived of liberty by judicial decision
    • Patient not affiliated with a social security scheme
    • no CT scan available
    • no lung function test available the year around CT scan
Terms in these criteria, in plain language(1)

Underlined terms in the criteria open these too. Explained by clinicaltrials.gg, not part of the registry record. The study team decides who can take part.

COPD

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: long-term lung disease that makes it hard to breathe out, including emphysema and chronic bronchitis.

05

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Retrospective
Enrollment
230 participants (estimated)
Patient registry
No

Groups and cohorts

  • Emphysema secondary to alpha-1-anti-trypsin deficiency (AATD)

    The subjects included will be any patients followed and diagnosed between 2010 and 2025 in the pulmonology department for emphysema and COPD secondary to alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency ZZ, Znull, ZMalton, Z and rare mutations, based on the diagnosis of emphysema made from an initial thoracic CT scan (+/- 12 months after diagnosis).

06

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Evaluation of vital status

    Death within 5 years of emphysema diagnosis.

    Time frame: 5 years

  2. Evaluation of transplantation status

    Lung transplantation within 5 years of emphysema diagnosis.

    Time frame: 5 years

07

Study locations

4 of 4 sites recruiting
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References and documents

Publications

  • Ho ESY, Ellis PR, Kavanagh D, Subramanian D, Stockley RA, Turner AM. Proposal and Validation of the Minimum Clinically Important Difference in Emphysema Progression. Chronic Obstr Pulm Dis. 2025 Mar 27;12(2):109-116. doi: 10.15326/jcopdf.2024.0511. PubMed 39933559 ↗
  • McElvaney NG, Burdon J, Holmes M, Glanville A, Wark PA, Thompson PJ, Hernandez P, Chlumsky J, Teschler H, Ficker JH, Seersholm N, Altraja A, Makitaro R, Chorostowska-Wynimko J, Sanak M, Stoicescu PI, Piitulainen E, Vit O, Wencker M, Tortorici MA, Fries M, Edelman JM, Chapman KR; RAPID Extension Trial Group. Long-term efficacy and safety of alpha1 proteinase inhibitor treatment for emphysema caused by severe alpha1 antitrypsin deficiency: an open-label extension trial (RAPID-OLE). Lancet Respir Med. 2017 Jan;5(1):51-60. doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(16)30430-1. Epub 2016 Dec 2. PubMed 27916480 ↗
  • Stolk J, Stockley RA, Piitulainen E, Stoel BC. Relationship between Change in Lung Density and Long-Term Progression of Lung Function. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2015 Jul 1;192(1):114-6. doi: 10.1164/rccm.201502-0370LE. No abstract available. PubMed 26131993 ↗
  • Sieluk J, Levy J, Sandhaus RA, Silverman H, Holm KE, Mullins CD. Costs of Medical Care Among Augmentation Therapy Users and Non-Users with Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency in the United States. Chronic Obstr Pulm Dis. 2018 Nov 8;6(1):6-16. doi: 10.15326/jcopdf.6.1.2017.0187. PubMed 30775420 ↗
  • Gildea TR, Shermock KM, Singer ME, Stoller JK. Cost-effectiveness analysis of augmentation therapy for severe alpha1-antitrypsin deficiency. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2003 May 15;167(10):1387-92. doi: 10.1164/rccm.200209-1035OC. Epub 2003 Feb 5. PubMed 12574076 ↗
  • Fraughen DD, Ghosh AJ, Hobbs BD, Funk GC, Meischl T, Clarenbach CF, Sievi NA, Schmid-Scherzer K, McElvaney OJ, Murphy MP, Roche AD, Clarke L, Strand M, Vafai-Tabrizi F, Kelly G, Gunaratnam C, Carroll TP, McElvaney NG. Augmentation Therapy for Severe Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency Improves Survival and Is Decoupled from Spirometric Decline-A Multinational Registry Analysis. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2023 Nov 1;208(9):964-974. doi: 10.1164/rccm.202305-0863OC. PubMed 37624745 ↗

Individual participant data

Plan to share: Undecided

09

Timeline

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
ElapsedEstimatedEstimated, not yet reached

Started Feb 2026 (actual). Primary completion is estimated for Mar 2031, 61 months after the start.

How these figures are worked out, and which studies are left out of them.

Registered
Jul 15, 2026
First posted
Jul 20, 2026
StartActual
Feb 16, 2026
Primary completionEst.
Mar 16, 2031
CompletionEst.
Mar 16, 2031
Last update
Jul 20, 2026
What these dates mean
Start.
When the first participant enrolled; while estimated, when the study expects to open to recruitment.
Primary completion.
When the last participant was examined or treated to collect data for the study's main question, its primary outcome. A study that stopped early gives the date its data collection stopped.
Completion.
When the last participant's last visit took place, for every outcome, secondary ones and side effects included: the end of the study. Often later than primary completion, sometimes the same day.
Actual and Est.
Actual means the registry says the date has happened. Est. (estimated) is a date the sponsor plans or expects. It can still move, and the sponsor is expected to change it to actual once it has passed.
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Jul 20, 2026, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
10

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT07715617
Responsible party
Sponsor
First posted
Jul 20, 2026
Start date
Feb 16, 2026
Primary completion
Mar 16, 2031 (estimated)
Completion
Mar 16, 2031 (estimated)
Last update
Jul 20, 2026

Study contacts

Maéva ZYSMAN, MD, PhD
Contact
maeva.zysma@chu-bordeaux.fr
+335 57 65 63 38
Margot GENAUD
Contact
margot.genaud@chu-bordeaux.fr
+335 25 35 21 94

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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