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RecruitingNCT07265388SUCCESSUpdated Dec 4, 2025

SUCCESS Score Validation in Fuchs Dystrophy

An observational study in Fuchs Endothelial Corneal Dystrophy, sponsored by Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria. Recruiting at 1 site in Spain. Open to participants aged 40 Years and older. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2025-12-04.

Sponsored by Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria · Observational

From the registry’s dates

  • Primary completion was expected by Jul 2026, 4 months ago, but the record still lists the study as recruiting.
  • Started Jun 2020; still recruiting 6 years 5 months later.
Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
250
Ages
40 Years and older
Sex
All
01

Study summary

This prospective multicenter diagnostic study aims to externally validate and extend the SUCCESS Score for predicting the need for endothelial keratoplasty after cataract surgery in patients with Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD). The model's performance and clinical utility are assessed using discrimination, calibration, and reclassification metrics.

Read the detailed description

Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD) is a progressive corneal disorder characterized by endothelial cell loss, corneal edema, and visual impairment. In patients with FECD and cataract, an important clinical challenge is to predict whether cataract surgery alone will suffice or whether endothelial keratoplasty (EK) will be required postoperatively. Accurate preoperative risk stratification is essential for surgical planning and patient counseling.

The SUCCESS Score, derived from Scheimpflug tomography, was proposed as an objective index to estimate the risk of postoperative corneal decompensation in FECD. However, its external multicenter validation and the potential contribution of corneal densitometry have not yet been fully established.

This ongoing prospective, observational, multicenter study aims to externally validate and extend the SUCCESS Score for predicting the need for EK after cataract surgery in patients with FECD. The study is being conducted across five tertiary referral centers in Spain. Eligible participants are adults with FECD grade ≥2 on the modified Krachmer scale and a visually significant cataract requiring phacoemulsification. Patients with epithelial edema, prior ocular surgery, corneal infection, or trauma are excluded.

Preoperative evaluation includes Scheimpflug tomography and corneal densitometry analysis. The primary outcome is the requirement for endothelial keratoplasty after cataract surgery, determined by postoperative visual function and corneal evaluation. Model performance will be assessed through discrimination (Harrell's C statistic), calibration, reclassification (IDI, NRI), and decision curve analysis to estimate clinical utility.

The primary analysis is scheduled for completion in October 2024. Extended follow-up will continue until June 25, 2026, to assess long-term predictive performance and generalizability of the extended SUCCESS model.

An interactive web-based calculator implementing both the original and extended SUCCESS models will be provided as a supplementary tool to facilitate clinical use and standardized patient counseling across participating centers.

02

Conditions studied

  • Fuchs Endothelial Corneal Dystrophy

Keywords

  • Fuchs Endothelial Corneal Dystrophy
  • Cataract Surgery
  • endothelial keratoplasty
  • Diagnostic Accuracy
  • Prognostic Validation
  • Predictive Modeling
03

In context

Fuchs' Endothelial Dystrophy

92 studies on the registry are indexed under Fuchs' Endothelial Dystrophy; 27 are open to participants now.

This study's planned enrollment of 250 is above the median of 144 across 26 observational studies indexed under Fuchs' Endothelial Dystrophy.

Browse Fuchs' Endothelial Dystrophy studies →

Lead sponsor

This is the only study on the registry with Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria as lead sponsor.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

04

Who can participate

Ages eligible
40 Years and older
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
No
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

dults with clinically diagnosed Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD) and visually significant cataract who are scheduled to undergo phacoemulsification surgery at participating tertiary referral centers in Spain. Eligible participants present FECD grade ≥2 on the modified Krachmer scale and have available preoperative Scheimpflug tomography and corneal densitometry measurements. The study population represents a real-world clinical cohort of patients routinely evaluated in corneal and cataract units, allowing assessment of the predictive performance and clinical utility of the SUCCESS Score under standard care conditions.

Go through the criteria one by one — yes, no or not sure — and take the list to your doctor or the study team. Kept in this browser only.

Inclusion criteria

  • Adults aged ≥40 years.
  • Clinical diagnosis of Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD) grade ≥2 on the modified Krachmer scale.
  • Presence of visually significant cataract requiring phacoemulsification surgery.
  • Ability to provide and comply with study procedures.
  • Availability of preoperative Scheimpflug tomography and corneal densitometry measurements.

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Epithelial or stromal edema precluding reliable corneal imaging.
  • Previous ocular surgery (including corneal or intraocular procedures).
  • Corneal trauma, infection, or inflammation affecting endothelial integrity.
  • Coexisting ocular pathologies that could confound postoperative assessment (e.g., advanced glaucoma, macular degeneration).
Terms in these criteria, in plain language(1)

Underlined terms in the criteria open these too. Explained by clinicaltrials.gg, not part of the registry record. The study team decides who can take part.

Informed consent

Before you join, the study team explains what taking part involves — its purpose, what happens, the risks and possible benefits — and answers your questions, so you can decide freely. Consent is usually recorded on a form (the informed consent form, ICF) signed by you or, where the law allows, by someone legally authorised to decide for you.

You can keep asking questions during the study, you are told of new information that matters, and you can choose to leave at any time.

05

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
250 participants (estimated)
Target follow-up
5 Years
Patient registry
Yes

Groups and cohorts

  • FECD Cohort

    Patients with clinically diagnosed Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD) undergoing phacoemulsification cataract surgery at participating tertiary centers. All participants receive standard cataract surgery, and their preoperative data are used to calculate the SUCCESS Score with and without corneal densitometry parameters. Postoperative outcomes are monitored to determine the need for endothelial keratoplasty (EK).

    Procedure: Phacoemulsification Cataract Surgery

Interventions

  • ProcedurePhacoemulsification Cataract Surgery

    Standard phacoemulsification cataract surgery performed in patients with Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD). All procedures are carried out according to institutional protocols at participating tertiary centers. Preoperative Scheimpflug tomography and corneal densitometry measurements are collected to calculate the SUCCESS Score and evaluate the risk of postoperative endothelial decompensation. Postoperative outcomes are monitored to determine whether endothelial keratoplasty (EK) is required during follow-up.

06

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Need for endothelial keratoplasty (EK) after cataract surgery in patients with Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy

    The primary outcome is the need for endothelial keratoplasty (EK) following phacoemulsification cataract surgery in patients with Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD). The endpoint is determined based on postoperative best-corrected visual acuity, corneal clarity, and presence of clinical signs of corneal decompensation. Each eye is evaluated using standardized follow-up visits and imaging criteria across participating centers. The decision to perform EK is made according to established clinical indications by the attending ophthalmologist, ensuring consistency across study sites.

    Time frame: Up to 36 months after cataract surgery

Secondary outcomes

  1. Model discrimination (Harrell's C statistic) of the SUCCESS Score

    Model discrimination will be assessed using Harrell's C statistic (concordance index) to quantify how accurately the SUCCESS Score predicts the need for endothelial keratoplasty after cataract surgery in patients with FECD.

    Time frame: At primary analysis (October 2024)

  2. Calibration and predictive accuracy of the SUCCESS Score

    Calibration plots and Brier score will be used to evaluate the agreement between predicted and observed probabilities of endothelial keratoplasty. Goodness-of-fit will be assessed across deciles of predicted risk.

    Time frame: At primary analysis (June 2026)

  3. Reclassification and clinical utility of the extended SUCCESS model

    The incremental value of adding corneal densitometry to the SUCCESS Score will be assessed using Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI), Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI), and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) to determine potential clinical benefit.

    Time frame: At primary analysis (June 2026)

07

Study locations

1 of 1 sites recruiting
  • Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Universidad de Alcalá, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria (IRYCIS)
    Madrid, Madrid 28034, Spain
    Recruiting
08

References and documents

Publications

  • Arnalich-Montiel F, de-Arriba-Palomero P, Muriel A, Mingo-Botin D. A Risk Prediction Model for Endothelial Keratoplasty After Uncomplicated Cataract Surgery in Fuchs Endothelial Corneal Dystrophy. Am J Ophthalmol. 2021 Nov;231:70-78. doi: 10.1016/j.ajo.2021.04.016. Epub 2021 May 2. PubMed 33951443 ↗

Individual participant data

Plan to share: Yes — Deidentified individual participant data (IPD) that underlie the results reported in this article will be made available to qualified researchers upon reasonable request. Access will be granted after publication of the primary results and upon approval of a methodologically sound proposal. Data will be shared through a secure institutional platform of the Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria (IRYCIS).

Supporting information: Study protocol, Statistical analysis plan, Analytic code

Time frame: Beginning 12 months after publication and ending 36 months after publication.

Access criteria: Qualified researchers affiliated with academic or non-profit institutions may request access to the deidentified individual participant data (IPD), study protocol, statistical analysis plan, and analytic code. Requests must include a methodologically sound proposal describing the intended analyses and objectives. Data and supporting materials will be shared through a secure institutional data repository managed by the Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria (IRYCIS). Access will be granted upon approval by the study's data governance committee and completion of a data use agreement ensuring appropriate data handling and confidentiality.

09

Updates

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Dec 4, 2025, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
10

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT07265388
Lead sponsor
Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria
Responsible party
Francisco Arnalich-Montiel (Lead investigator of the Ophtalmology department, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria) — Principal investigator
First posted
Dec 4, 2025
Start date
Jun 1, 2020
Primary completion
Jul 2026 (estimated)
Completion
Dec 2026 (estimated)
Last update
Dec 4, 2025

Study contacts

Francisco Arnalich-Montiel, PhD
Contact
francisco.arnalich@salud.madrid.org
+34 913368853

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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