An observational study in Dengue, Arbovirus Infections and Epidemic Disease, sponsored by Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium. Active, not recruiting at 1 site in Cuba. Open to participants aged 19 Years to 75 Years, including healthy volunteers. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-04-22.
Sponsored by Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium · Observational
In contrast to the trend expected based on existing prediction models, dengue incidence was historically low during the pandemic mobility restrictions of 2020-2021 in most dengue endemic countries. This highlights that current transmission models do not correctly take human mobility into account. Within a pilot-study in Cienfuegos, South-Central Cuba, we will characterise the epidemiological spread and distribution of dengue outbreaks (2012-2025) in districts repeatedly involved in previous dengue outbreaks as initiating, case-concentrating or transmission sustaining areas. This will be linked with fine-grained mobility data and socio-spatial characterizations of commuting flows and population hubs where people are concentrated during day-time (time when transmission happens). This information, together with entomological and environmental risk-data, will be used to i) improve the accuracy of mathematical dengue models, ii) better understand the transmission process and iii) inform and improve the design of disease control strategies. The project will contribute to much-needed evidence-based guidance for public health actors on improved prevention strategies of epidemics dispersion and where and when to implement control measures.
Using epidemiological data and human mobility data, integrated with other multiple-sourced data, this study examines the interplay between disease spread and intra-city mobility (within a city).
The study is ambi-spective, using retro- and prospective routine surveillance data (2012-2025) on dengue cases and Aedes entomological data, to describe the fine-scale spatio-temporal characterization of dengue transmission in Cienfuegos municipality.
To characterise human mobility within the municipality of Cienfuegos, information related to recurrent and seasonal movements will be collected. Several types of data will be triangulated to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the population's mobility (matrix of human mobility). In this way, six prospective data collection activities are planned:
In a third step, the above information will be brought into a mathematical model, explaining mobility within transmission dynamics, which will be validated in a prospective way allowing to identify shortcomings and adjust the model where needed.
In a last step, the various types of collected data will be assembled and discussed together for the elaboration of potential dengue (and integrated) control strategies and presented for validation with local stakeholders.
283 studies on the registry are indexed under Dengue; 44 are open to participants now.
This study's planned enrollment of 810 is above the median of 595 across 80 observational studies indexed under Dengue.
Browse Dengue studies →Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium is the lead sponsor of 104 studies on the registry; 21 are open to participants now.
Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.
Research will take place in Cienfuegos municipality, Cuba, with a population of 178 776 inhabitants. For the epidemiological and entomological data, routine surveillance info will be used, which covers the entire municipality.
For mobility patterns characterisation, for example the mobility survey: we selected (based on epidemiological patterns) 5 sentinel Popular Councils. Within each, 4 consultorios and their area of coverage were selected. In the consultorium exists a health registry, a list of all persons in the consultorium catchment area. Participants will be selected from the health registry by a random process using the RANDBETWEEN function in Microsoft Excel, within a range of 1 to upper limit equal to the total number of patients in the registry.
Go through the criteria one by one — yes, no or not sure — and take the list to your doctor or the study team. Kept in this browser only.
For the prospective data collection - mobility survey:
Inclusion Criteria:
Exclusion Criteria:
Underlined terms in the criteria open these too. Explained by clinicaltrials.gg, not part of the registry record. The study team decides who can take part.
Before you join, the study team explains what taking part involves — its purpose, what happens, the risks and possible benefits — and answers your questions, so you can decide freely. Consent is usually recorded on a form (the informed consent form, ICF) signed by you or, where the law allows, by someone legally authorised to decide for you.
You can keep asking questions during the study, you are told of new information that matters, and you can choose to leave at any time.
Informed consent
Before you join, the study team explains what taking part involves — its purpose, what happens, the risks and possible benefits — and answers your questions, so you can decide freely. Consent is usually recorded on a form (the informed consent form, ICF) signed by you or, where the law allows, by someone legally authorised to decide for you.
You can keep asking questions during the study, you are told of new information that matters, and you can choose to leave at any time.
Explained by clinicaltrials.gg, not part of the registry record. The study team decides who can take part.
This is an observational study. No experimental interventions included. The mobility of people will be studied.
dengue incidence
multilevel spatio-temporal characterization of dengue transmission dynamics, focussing on transmission propagation heterogeneity in time and space
Time frame: 2012-2025
human mobility
origen-destination matrices will be built, based on information collected in mobility survey, school and workplace registries, vacation stories, phone data, student survey and in-depth interviews
Time frame: 2024-2026
entomological risks for dengue transmission
entomological indicators (monthly data collection of immature stages 2012-2025; monthly surveys of adult stages Aedes mosquitoes 2024-2025)
Time frame: 2012-2025
climate
temperature (° degrees celsius, daily minimum, daily maximum, weekly average) and rainfall (mm/day)
Time frame: 2012-2026
Mathematical transmission model
Stochastic mobility-driven spatially explicit DENV model based on the two primary outcomes of this study
Time frame: 2024-2026
socio-spatial characterisation of public spaces
hourly population densities (number of persons present for more than 5 minutes present) in different rooms/areas of densely frequented public spaces (schools, markets, factories)
Time frame: 2024-2026
This study is active, not recruiting, as verified in Apr 2026. You cannot join it, but the record below documents what was studied.
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