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CompletedNCT06268379Updated Feb 20, 2024

BMA and Dynamic Nomogram for Survival Prediction in Patients With CRC

An observational study in Colon Cancer and Model Disease, sponsored by Cabrini Health. Completed at 1 site in Australia. Open to participants aged 22 Years to 101 Years. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2024-02-20.

Sponsored by Cabrini Health · Observational

Study type
Observational
Model
Other
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
2,475
Ages
22 Years to 101 Years
Sex
All
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Study summary

This project will examine the outstanding statistical techniques for predicting the survival of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) (colorectal neoplasia database). The motivating clinical question that led to proposing this project is based on the general assumption that: "Right-sided colorectal cancer (CRC) has worse survival than left-sided CRC." The question is, which aspects of the patient's characteristics are responsible for this difference? This led us to BMA model selection and provide a clinician-friendly online nomogram.

Read the detailed description

Translational statistics merges biostatistics and clinical research to communicate research findings effectively. Nomograms, graphical representations integrating independent prognostic factors, are valuable tools in colorectal cancer (CRC) research. Bayesian models for variable selection in survival outcome prediction offer advantages through Bayesian model averaging (BMA). This study aimed to utilise BMA for variable selection and develop a clinician-friendly online dynamic nomogram for survival prediction.

A retrospective study utilised the Cabrini Monash colorectal neoplasia database, including colon cancer patients who underwent surgery. Data on demographics, perioperative risks, treatment details, mortality, morbidity, and survival were collected. BMA was employed for Bayesian variable selection to identify effective risk factors for survival prediction. Sensitivity analyses using Cox-LASSO and imputation of missing data were performed. Prognostic online dynamic nomograms were constructed using selected risk factors and the R-package DynNom.

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Conditions studied

  • Colon Cancer
  • Model Disease

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Keywords

  • Colorectal cancer; Translational statistics; Online dynamic nomogram; Bayesian variable selection; Survival prediction
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In context

Colonic Neoplasms

1,432 studies on the registry are indexed under Colonic Neoplasms; 357 are open to participants now.

This study's enrollment of 2,475 is above the median of 280 across 349 observational studies indexed under Colonic Neoplasms.

Browse Colonic Neoplasms studies →

Lead sponsor

This is the only study on the registry with Cabrini Health as lead sponsor.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

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Who can participate

Ages eligible
22 Years to 101 Years
Sexes eligible
All
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

A retrospective study was conducted with the Cabrini Monash Colorectal Neoplasia Database 15. This prospectively maintained database includes data from both private (Cabrini) and public (The Alfred) hospitals in Melbourne, Australia. The study focused on patients who underwent surgery for colon cancer from January 2010 to December 2021.

Inclusion criteria

In this study, patients were included based on specific selection criteria: being 18 years old or older, having a diagnosis of colon adenocarcinoma (or post polypectomy of the same condition), and having undergone surgery for colon cancer.

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

Patients with rectal cancer, neuroendocrine tumours, lymphomas and those who underwent trans-anal surgery were not included in the study.

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Study design

Observational model
Other
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
2,475 participants (actual)
Target follow-up
11 Years
Patient registry
Yes

Interventions

  • ProcedureSurgery

    Not an interventional study, it is an observational, longitudinal study.

    Also known as: Observational study

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What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. OS

    Overall Survival, time from sugary to death or last follow up

    Time frame: 2011-2021

  2. RFS

    Relapse-free Survival, time from sugary to death or last follow up for those without relapse.

    Time frame: 2011-2021

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Study locations

1 site
  • Cabrini Health
    Melbourne, Victoria 3144, Australia
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References and documents

Publications

  • Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, Bray F. Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin. 2021 May;71(3):209-249. doi: 10.3322/caac.21660. Epub 2021 Feb 4. PubMed 33538338 ↗
  • Siegel RL, Miller KD, Goding Sauer A, Fedewa SA, Butterly LF, Anderson JC, Cercek A, Smith RA, Jemal A. Colorectal cancer statistics, 2020. CA Cancer J Clin. 2020 May;70(3):145-164. doi: 10.3322/caac.21601. Epub 2020 Mar 5. PubMed 32133645 ↗
  • Jalali A, Alvarez-Iglesias A, Roshan D, Newell J. Visualising statistical models using dynamic nomograms. PLoS One. 2019 Nov 15;14(11):e0225253. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225253. eCollection 2019. PubMed 31730633 ↗
  • Borumandnia N, Doosti H, Jalali A, Khodakarim S, Charati JY, Pourhoseingholi MA, Talebi A, Agah S. Nomogram to Predict the Overall Survival of Colorectal Cancer Patients: A Multicenter National Study. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jul 21;18(15):7734. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18157734. PubMed 34360026 ↗
  • Maity AK, Basu S, Ghosh S. Bayesian Criterion Based Variable Selection. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat. 2021 Aug;70(4):835-857. doi: 10.1111/rssc.12488. Epub 2021 Aug 7. PubMed 38863987 ↗

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No

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Updates

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Feb 20, 2024, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
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Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT06268379
Lead sponsor
Cabrini Health
Responsible party
Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi (A/Prof Mohamad Asghari Jafarabadi, Cabrini Health) — Principal investigator
First posted
Feb 20, 2024
Start date
Feb 15, 2010
Primary completion
Dec 15, 2021
Completion
Dec 15, 2021
Last update
Feb 20, 2024

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
Yes
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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This study is completed, as verified in Feb 2024. You cannot join it, but the record below documents what was studied.

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