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TerminatedNCT05039047REPEATUpdated Oct 17, 2024

External Validation of Two Prediction Models for Independent Gait After Stroke

An observational study in Stroke, sponsored by Janne Veerbeek. Terminated at 1 site in Switzerland. Open to participants aged 18 Years and older. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2024-10-17.

Sponsored by Janne Veerbeek · Observational

Why this study was terminated
Change position of PI, no replacement available, therefore unable to continue recruitment - all enrolled patients finished the study according to plan
Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
149
Ages
18 Years and older
Sex
All
01

Study summary

Regaining independent gait is one of the main goals in stroke rehabilitation and early prediction of gait outcome is important to guide discharge planning at acute stroke units, design rehabilitation and inform patients and relatives. In the last decade, two easy-to-apply prediction models for gait were developed: the EPOS model in the Netherlands and the TWIST model in New Zealand. Although the models' performance in the development cohorts was good, this does not automatically mean that the models are ready for application in clinical practice, as it is unknown whether their performance is also good in an independent cohort from a different country and with different patient characteristics. Such external validation is an essential step towards clinical implementation of prediction models.

A mobility-related problem is the occurrence of falls after stroke. Walking is among the Top 3 activities during which stroke patients fall, with the other two activities being transferring or sitting in a wheelchair. Especially soft tissue injuries after a fall are common and in 1-15% of the patients, the fall results in a fracture. Apart from the costs that arise from these injuries, falls have a negative impact on the patient's physical functioning and psychological status, with an increased dependency and fear of falling, resulting in a reduced quality of life.

A systematic review found 12 studies that developed fall risk prediction models for either inpatient rehabilitation stroke patients or those living in the community. Important predictors for falls are the presence of hemi-inattention, fall history and balance deficits. However, none of the models had an acceptable performance and predictors were not always captured by a validated assessment, which is an important prerequisite for an unbiased prediction model.

The primary aim of this study is to externally validate the EPOS and TWIST models for independent gait after stroke in a heterogeneous sample of subjects admitted to the hospital with an acute stroke. It is hypothesized that the performance of both models in this independent cohort will be lower than in the development cohorts, but still be adequate.

The secondary objective is to investigate the occurrence and predictability of falls within the first six months after stroke and its relationship with the prognosis for independent gait within this sample.

02

Conditions studied

  • Stroke

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Keywords

  • Gait
  • Prognosis
  • External validation
  • EPOS model
  • TWIST model
  • Falls
03

In context

Stroke

7,443 studies on the registry are indexed under Stroke; 2,012 are open to participants now.

This study's enrollment of 149 is close to the median of 160 across 1,729 observational studies indexed under Stroke.

Browse Stroke studies →

Lead sponsor

This is the only study on the registry with Janne Veerbeek as lead sponsor.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

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Who can participate

Ages eligible
18 Years and older
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
No
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

Admitted to a hospital with an acute stroke

Go through the criteria one by one — yes, no or not sure — and take the list to your doctor or the study team. Kept in this browser only.

Inclusion criteria

  • First-ever or recurrent stroke as confirmed by computerized tomography and/ or magnetic resonance imaging
  • Not able to walk independently within the first 72 hours after stroke (Functional Ambulation Categories \<4)
  • Age ≥18 year
  • Written informed consent

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion criterion:

  • Not able to walk independently before hospital admission (Functional Ambulation Categories \<4)
05

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
149 participants (actual)
Patient registry
No

Groups and cohorts

  • Cohort

    Other: Standard stroke acute care and rehabilitation

Interventions

  • OtherStandard stroke acute care and rehabilitation

    According to Swiss national guidelines and local protocols

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What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Functional Ambulation Categories (0-5 points, higher scores being better)

    Walking ability (independence)

    Time frame: 6 weeks poststroke

  2. Functional Ambulation Categories (0-5 points, higher scores being better)

    Walking ability (independence)

    Time frame: 12 weeks poststroke

  3. Functional Ambulation Categories (0-5 points, higher scores being better)

    Walking ability (independence)

    Time frame: 26 weeks poststroke

Secondary outcomes

  1. Falls

    Number of falls

    Time frame: 6 weeks poststroke

  2. Falls

    Number of falls

    Time frame: 12 weeks poststroke

  3. Falls

    Number of falls

    Time frame: 26 weeks poststroke

Other outcomes

  1. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (0-42 points, lower scores being better)

    Neurological functions

    Time frame: Hospital admission, usually within 24 hours poststroke

  2. Trunk Control Test (0-100 points, higher scores being better)

    Trunk control

    Time frame: within 72 hours poststroke

  3. Motricity Index - lower extremity subscale (0-100 points, higher scores being better)

    Lower extremity isometric muscle strength

    Time frame: within 72 hours poststroke

  4. Medical Research Grading - hip extension (0-5 points, higher scores being better)

    Hip extension muscle strength

    Time frame: within 72 hours poststroke

  5. Modified Rankin Scale (0-5 points, lower scores being better)

    Global disability

    Time frame: 6 weeks poststroke

  6. Modified Rankin Scale (0-5 points, lower scores being better)

    Global disability

    Time frame: 12 weeks poststroke

  7. Modified Rankin Scale (0-5 points, lower scores being better)

    Global disability

    Time frame: 26 weeks poststroke

07

Study locations

1 site
  • Luzerner Kantonsspital
    Lucerne, 6000, Switzerland
08

References and documents

Publications

  • Veerbeek JM, Van Wegen EE, Harmeling-Van der Wel BC, Kwakkel G; EPOS Investigators. Is accurate prediction of gait in nonambulatory stroke patients possible within 72 hours poststroke? The EPOS study. Neurorehabil Neural Repair. 2011 Mar-Apr;25(3):268-74. doi: 10.1177/1545968310384271. Epub 2010 Dec 26. PubMed 21186329 ↗
  • Smith MC, Barber PA, Stinear CM. The TWIST Algorithm Predicts Time to Walking Independently After Stroke. Neurorehabil Neural Repair. 2017 Oct-Nov;31(10-11):955-964. doi: 10.1177/1545968317736820. Epub 2017 Nov 1. PubMed 29090654 ↗
  • Steyerberg EW, Moons KG, van der Windt DA, Hayden JA, Perel P, Schroter S, Riley RD, Hemingway H, Altman DG; PROGRESS Group. Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research. PLoS Med. 2013;10(2):e1001381. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001381. Epub 2013 Feb 5. PubMed 23393430 ↗
  • Moons KGM, Wolff RF, Riley RD, Whiting PF, Westwood M, Collins GS, Reitsma JB, Kleijnen J, Mallett S. PROBAST: A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies: Explanation and Elaboration. Ann Intern Med. 2019 Jan 1;170(1):W1-W33. doi: 10.7326/M18-1377. PubMed 30596876 ↗
  • Moons KG, Kengne AP, Grobbee DE, Royston P, Vergouwe Y, Altman DG, Woodward M. Risk prediction models: II. External validation, model updating, and impact assessment. Heart. 2012 May;98(9):691-8. doi: 10.1136/heartjnl-2011-301247. Epub 2012 Mar 7. PubMed 22397946 ↗
  • Lamb SE, Jorstad-Stein EC, Hauer K, Becker C; Prevention of Falls Network Europe and Outcomes Consensus Group. Development of a common outcome data set for fall injury prevention trials: the Prevention of Falls Network Europe consensus. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2005 Sep;53(9):1618-22. doi: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53455.x. PubMed 16137297 ↗
  • Batchelor FA, Mackintosh SF, Said CM, Hill KD. Falls after stroke. Int J Stroke. 2012 Aug;7(6):482-90. doi: 10.1111/j.1747-4949.2012.00796.x. Epub 2012 Apr 12. PubMed 22494388 ↗
  • Walsh M, Galvin R, Horgan NF. Fall-related experiences of stroke survivors: a meta-ethnography. Disabil Rehabil. 2017 Apr;39(7):631-640. doi: 10.3109/09638288.2016.1160445. Epub 2016 Mar 23. PubMed 27008035 ↗
  • Walsh ME, Galvin R, Boland F, Williams D, Harbison JA, Murphy S, Collins R, Crowe M, McCabe DJH, Horgan F. Validation of two risk-prediction models for recurrent falls in the first year after stroke: a prospective cohort study. Age Ageing. 2017 Jul 1;46(4):642-648. doi: 10.1093/ageing/afw255. PubMed 28104593 ↗
  • Rajkovic LA, Veerbeek-Preuss S, Bartschi S, Ottiger B, Nyffeler T, Veerbeek JM. External Validation of the Time to Walking Independently After Stroke (TWIST) Prediction Algorithm within 72 Hours Poststroke. Neurorehabil Neural Repair. 2026 Aug 26:15459683261477077. doi: 10.1177/15459683261477077. Online ahead of print. PubMed 42648903 ↗
  • Vinzens L, Betschart M, Veerbeek JM. External Validation of the EPOS Prediction Model for Independent Gait After Stroke. Neurorehabil Neural Repair. 2026 May 15:15459683261425934. doi: 10.1177/15459683261425934. Online ahead of print. PubMed 42136245 ↗

Individual participant data

Plan to share: Undecided

09

Timeline

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
ElapsedEstimatedEstimated, not yet reached

Ran from Oct 2021 to primary completion in Jun 2024, 31 months.

How these figures are worked out, and which studies are left out of them.

Registered
Aug 18, 2021
First posted
Sep 9, 2021
StartActual
Oct 19, 2021
Primary completionActual
Jun 7, 2024
CompletionActual
Jun 7, 2024
Last update
Oct 17, 2024
What these dates mean
Start.
When the first participant enrolled; while estimated, when the study expects to open to recruitment.
Primary completion.
When the last participant was examined or treated to collect data for the study's main question, its primary outcome. A study that stopped early gives the date its data collection stopped.
Completion.
When the last participant's last visit took place, for every outcome, secondary ones and side effects included: the end of the study. Often later than primary completion, sometimes the same day.
Actual and Est.
Actual means the registry says the date has happened. Est. (estimated) is a date the sponsor plans or expects. It can still move, and the sponsor is expected to change it to actual once it has passed.
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Oct 17, 2024, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
10

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT05039047
Lead sponsor
Janne Veerbeek
Responsible party
Janne Veerbeek (PT, PhD, Luzerner Kantonsspital) — Sponsor-investigator
First posted
Sep 9, 2021
Start date
Oct 19, 2021
Primary completion
Jun 7, 2024
Completion
Jun 7, 2024
Last update
Oct 17, 2024

Study contacts

Janne M. Veerbeek, PhD
principal investigator · Luzerner Kantonsspital

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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