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CompletedNCT02925156METSUpdated Sep 17, 2025Results posted

Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study

An observational study in Obesity and Diabetes, sponsored by Loyola University. Completed at 1 site in United States. Open to participants aged 18 Years to 50 Years, including healthy volunteers. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2025-09-17.

Sponsored by Loyola University · Observational

Study type
Observational
Model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
2,506
Ages
18 Years to 50 Years
Sex
All
01

Study summary

This project examines whether individuals' amount of activity energy expenditure (AEE) is related to adiposity and adiposity/diabetes-related hormones in a diverse sample of 2500, and to test the ecological hypothesis that a decline in levels of AEE is an important cause of the increases in obesity that are currently taking place in many societies.

One goal is to use doubly labeled water and/or accelerometers to objectively measure activity energy expenditure in community samples from five adult populations across the spectrum of obesity risk. From each site, (i.e., Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica, and the US), 500 black adults will be recruited. Among all participants, AEE will be measured using accelerometers and in a subset of 75 per site, AEE will also be measured by doubly labeled water.

The doubly labeled water sample will be used to confirm site-specific concordance with the accelerometer measurements and to estimate population mean levels of AEE. Additionally, body composition, dietary intake, fasting glucose, insulin, adiponectin, leptin and ghrelin will be measured. The relationships between calories expended in activity and body composition, dietary intake, glucose, hormones and adipocytokines, both within and between each population using doubly labeled water and accelerometers will be examined. In this longitudinal study, weight will be measured at 12 and 24-months, and AEE by accelerometer will be assessed at enrollment and again at 2-years of follow-up; associations between change in AEE and change in weight will be estimated.

The central purpose of this project is to test whether AEE or change in AEE can be identified as a contributory mechanism to population-wide weight gain and, if so, to quantify its importance. In addition, we seek to understand the interrelationships between the adipocytokines and the hormones ghrelin and insulin as well as AEE in the regulation of body weight across the continuum of body mass indices (BMI) represented by these five populations.

Read the detailed description

Populations all over the world are experiencing rapid increases in the prevalence of obesity and diabetes. To date, the public health response to the emerging obesity epidemic has been almost totally ineffective. As a first line of response, professional bodies and government organizations have issued prevention guidelines, all of which include recommendations on levels of activity energy expenditure (AEE). However, even if fully implemented, it is not clear that the current recommendations on AEE would impact the trend in age-related weight gain. In fact, there is virtually no direct evidence that can be brought to bear on the question of whether the obesity epidemic has resulted primarily or even partially from society-wide declines in habitual physical activity (PA).

To date, epidemiologic research on AEE has relied on very crude measurement tools-primarily questionnaires. These self-reported data capture only a small fraction of the total variance in activity and are potentially confounded when they focus on leisure-time PA. By contrast, direct measurement with doubly labeled water (DLW) provides a precise, unbiased estimate of all forms of non-resting energy expenditure. DLW has also been used to validate the new generation of accelerometers which are efficient measurement tools for larger studies.

In this study, objective measurement tools will be used to examine the "ecology of AEE". This study will take place in 5 countries spanning the range of the activity-obesity spectrum and will combine both within-population person-level and between-population ecological analyses. First, the study will examine whether an individual's amount or pattern of AEE is related to adiposity in a diverse sample of 2,500. Second, the study will evaluate whether a decline in levels of AEE is an important cause of the rapid increases in obesity that currently take place in many societies. As an exploratory aim we will examine the role of selected adipocytokines and the appetite hormone ghrelin.

02

Conditions studied

  • Obesity
  • Diabetes

Keywords

  • Activity Energy Expenditure
  • Doubly Labeled Water
  • Physical Activity
  • Obesity
  • Diabetes
  • Cardiovascular Disease
  • Adiponectin
  • Leptin
  • Ghrelin
03

In context

Obesity

6,296 studies on the registry are indexed under Obesity; 1,692 are open to participants now.

This study's enrollment of 2,506 is above the median of 135 across 1,283 observational studies indexed under Obesity.

Browse Obesity studies →

Lead sponsor

Loyola University is the lead sponsor of 132 studies on the registry; 15 are open to participants now.

Of its 26 completed or terminated interventional studies of FDA-regulated products, 23 (88%) have results posted.

Counted across the registry records on this site, refreshed daily.

04

Who can participate

Ages eligible
18 Years to 50 Years
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
Yes
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

The study is comprises a complex samples population based approach drawn from communities in 5 countries: Ghana, Seychelles, South Africa, Jamaica and the US. Approximately 500 participants are enrolled per site for an unweighted total of 2500 participants.

Inclusion criteria

  • Identify as African American or Black
  • Age 18-50

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Pregnancy, nursing, or planning to become pregnant
  • Movement disorders or other disability that limits mobility
05

Study design

Observational model
Cohort
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
2,506 participants (actual)
Patient registry
No

Groups and cohorts

  • Ghanaian Men

    Men in the Ghana cohort are located at or near the the village of Nkwantakese which is approximately 20 kilometers outside of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Kumasi.

  • South African Men

    Men in the South Africa cohort are located at or near Khayelitsha, the 3rd largest township in South Africa, which is an adjacent town to the city of Cape Town. The population of Khayelitsha is about 500,000 people.

  • Seychelles Men

    Men in the Seychelles cohort are located at or near The Republic of Seychelles, which is an archipelago with 81,000 inhabitants located approximately 1,500 km east of Kenya in the Indian Ocean and approximately 2,000 km north of the island of Mauritius.

  • Jamaican Men

    Men in the Jamaica cohort are located at or near Spanish Town, Jamaica which is an urban area 25 km from the center of Kingston. The population of Spanish Town in 1991 was estimated at 92,000 people.

  • United States Men

    Men in the United States cohort are located at or near Maywood, IL, which is an African-American working class community adjacent to the western border of Chicago, IL. The population of Maywood in 2010 was estimated at 24,090 people.

  • Ghanaian Women

    Women in the Ghana cohort are located at or near the the village of Nkwantakese which is approximately 20 kilometers outside of Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Kumasi.

  • South African Women

    Women in the South Africa cohort are located at or near Khayelitsha, the 3rd largest township in South Africa, which is an adjacent town to the city of Cape Town. The population of Khayelitsha is about 500,000 people.

  • Seychelles Women

    Women in the Seychelles cohort are located at or near The Republic of Seychelles, which is an archipelago with 81,000 inhabitants located approximately 1,500 km east of Kenya in the Indian Ocean and approximately 2,000 km north of the island of Mauritius.

  • Jamaican Women

    Women in the Jamaica cohort are located at or near Spanish Town, Jamaica which is an urban area 25 km from the center of Kingston. The population of Spanish Town in 1991 was estimated at 92,000 people.

  • United States Women

    Women in the United States cohort are located at or near Maywood, IL, which is an African-American working class community adjacent to the western border of Chicago, IL. The population of Maywood in 2010 was estimated at 24,090 people.

06

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Change in Body Weight

    The change in body weight (measured in kilograms) will be measured for participants 24 months after baseline.

    Time frame: 24 months

07

Results

Posted Sep 17, 2025

Participant flow

Recruitment began on July 16, 2008 and ended on February 22, 2019

Participant flow — Overall Study
MilestoneGhanaian MenSouth African MenJamaican MenSeychelles MenUnited States MenGhanaian WomenSouth African WomenJamaican WomenSeychelles WomenUnited States Women
Started207236249230245293268251270257
Completed180183198171156186234215197223
Not completed275351598910734367334
Withdrew: Lost to follow-up275351598910734367334

Outcome measures

PrimaryChange in Body Weight

The change in body weight (measured in kilograms) will be measured for participants 24 months after baseline.

Time frame:
24 months
Reported as:
Mean · kilograms (kg)
Change in Body Weight
kilograms (kg)Ghanaian MenSouth African MenJamaican MenSeychelles MenUnited States MenGhanaian WomenSouth African WomenJamaican WomenSeychelles WomenUnited States Women
Change in Body Weight0.69 ± 3.150.76 ± 4.670.20 ± 3.900.81 ± 5.220.11 ± 5.991.94 ± 4.102.15 ± 6.82-0.11 ± 3.722.33 ± 4.270.08 ± 6.60

Adverse events

Collected over Adverse event data were collected for 2 years. Non-serious events are listed at a 5% frequency threshold.

Adverse event summary by group
GroupDeathsSeriousOther
Ghanaian Men0/207 (0%)0/207 (0%)0/207 (0%)
South African Men0/236 (0%)0/236 (0%)0/236 (0%)
Jamaican Men0/249 (0%)0/249 (0%)0/249 (0%)
Seychelles Men0/230 (0%)0/230 (0%)0/230 (0%)
United States Men0/245 (0%)0/245 (0%)0/245 (0%)
Ghanaian Women0/293 (0%)0/293 (0%)0/293 (0%)
South African Women0/268 (0%)0/268 (0%)0/268 (0%)
Jamaican Women0/251 (0%)0/251 (0%)0/251 (0%)
Seychelles Women0/270 (0%)0/270 (0%)0/270 (0%)
United States Women0/257 (0%)0/257 (0%)0/257 (0%)

Baseline characteristics

The baseline analysis population comprises all participants who signed an informed consent document

Age, Continuous
Age, Continuous(years)Ghanaian MenSouth African MenJamaican MenSeychelles MenUnited States MenGhanaian WomenSouth African WomenJamaican WomenSeychelles WomenUnited States WomenTotal
Mean34.6 ± 6.733.7 ± 5.634.0 ± 5.936.5 ± 5.135.6 ± 6.234.0 ± 6.633.1 ± 6.034.7 ± 6.235.8 ± 6.035.0 ± 6.334.7 ± 6.2
Sex: Female, Male
Sex: Female, Male(Participants)Ghanaian MenSouth African MenJamaican MenSeychelles MenUnited States MenGhanaian WomenSouth African WomenJamaican WomenSeychelles WomenUnited States WomenTotal
Female000002932682512702571339
Male207236249230245000001167
Race and Ethnicity Not Collected
Race and Ethnicity Not Collected(Participants)Ghanaian MenSouth African MenJamaican MenSeychelles MenUnited States MenGhanaian WomenSouth African WomenJamaican WomenSeychelles WomenUnited States WomenTotal
Count of participants——————————0
Region of Enrollment
Region of Enrollment(participants)Ghanaian MenSouth African MenJamaican MenSeychelles MenUnited States MenGhanaian WomenSouth African WomenJamaican WomenSeychelles WomenUnited States WomenTotal
United States00002450000257502
Ghana20700002930000500
South Africa02360000268000504
Jamaica00249000025100500
Seychelles00023000002700500
Body Mass Index
Body Mass Index(kg/m^2)Ghanaian MenSouth African MenJamaican MenSeychelles MenUnited States MenGhanaian WomenSouth African WomenJamaican WomenSeychelles WomenUnited States WomenTotal
Mean22.2 ± 2.722.4 ± 4.323.6 ± 4.526.5 ± 4.929.7 ± 7.525.5 ± 5.231.9 ± 8.229.5 ± 6.727.6 ± 6.234.1 ± 8.827.4 ± 7.3
08

Study locations

1 site
  • Loyola University Medical Center
    Maywood, Illinois 60153, United States
09

References and documents

Publications

  • Zimmet P. The burden of type 2 diabetes: are we doing enough? Diabetes Metab. 2003 Sep;29(4 Pt 2):6S9-18. doi: 10.1016/s1262-3636(03)72783-9. PubMed 14502096 ↗
  • Scaglione R, Argano C, Di Chiara T, Licata G. Obesity and cardiovascular risk: the new public health problem of worldwide proportions. Expert Rev Cardiovasc Ther. 2004 Mar;2(2):203-12. doi: 10.1586/14779072.2.2.203. PubMed 15151469 ↗
  • Popkin BM, Gordon-Larsen P. The nutrition transition: worldwide obesity dynamics and their determinants. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord. 2004 Nov;28 Suppl 3:S2-9. doi: 10.1038/sj.ijo.0802804. PubMed 15543214 ↗
  • Kohn M, Booth M. The worldwide epidemic of obesity in adolescents. Adolesc Med. 2003 Feb;14(1):1-9. PubMed 12529186 ↗
  • James PT. Obesity: the worldwide epidemic. Clin Dermatol. 2004 Jul-Aug;22(4):276-80. doi: 10.1016/j.clindermatol.2004.01.010. PubMed 15475226 ↗
  • Pate RR, Pratt M, Blair SN, Haskell WL, Macera CA, Bouchard C, Buchner D, Ettinger W, Heath GW, King AC, et al. Physical activity and public health. A recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American College of Sports Medicine. JAMA. 1995 Feb 1;273(5):402-7. doi: 10.1001/jama.273.5.402. PubMed 7823386 ↗
  • Fletcher GF, Balady G, Blair SN, Blumenthal J, Caspersen C, Chaitman B, Epstein S, Sivarajan Froelicher ES, Froelicher VF, Pina IL, Pollock ML. Statement on exercise: benefits and recommendations for physical activity programs for all Americans. A statement for health professionals by the Committee on Exercise and Cardiac Rehabilitation of the Council on Clinical Cardiology, American Heart Association. Circulation. 1996 Aug 15;94(4):857-62. doi: 10.1161/01.cir.94.4.857. No abstract available. PubMed 8772712 ↗
  • Physical activity and cardiovascular health. NIH Consensus Development Panel on Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Health. JAMA. 1996 Jul 17;276(3):241-6. PubMed 8667571 ↗
  • Morrow JR Jr, Jackson AW, Bazzarre TL, Milne D, Blair SN. A one-year follow-up to physical activity and health. A report of the Surgeon General. Am J Prev Med. 1999 Jul;17(1):24-30. doi: 10.1016/s0749-3797(99)00030-6. PubMed 10429749 ↗
  • Trumbo P, Schlicker S, Yates AA, Poos M; Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine, The National Academies. Dietary reference intakes for energy, carbohydrate, fiber, fat, fatty acids, cholesterol, protein and amino acids. J Am Diet Assoc. 2002 Nov;102(11):1621-30. doi: 10.1016/s0002-8223(02)90346-9. No abstract available. PubMed 12449285 ↗
  • Luke A, Bovet P, Plange-Rhule J, Forrester TE, Lambert EV, Schoeller DA, Dugas LR, Durazo-Arvizu RA, Shoham DA, Cao G, Brage S, Ekelund U, Cooper RS. A mixed ecologic-cohort comparison of physical activity & weight among young adults from five populations of African origin. BMC Public Health. 2014 Apr 24;14:397. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-397. PubMed 24758286 ↗
  • Dugas LR, Kliethermes S, Plange-Rhule J, Tong L, Bovet P, Forrester TE, Lambert EV, Schoeller DA, Durazo-Arvizu RA, Shoham DA, Cao G, Brage S, Ekelund U, Cooper RS, Luke A. Accelerometer-measured physical activity is not associated with two-year weight change in African-origin adults from five diverse populations. PeerJ. 2017 Jan 19;5:e2902. doi: 10.7717/peerj.2902. eCollection 2017. PubMed 28133575 ↗

Study documents

  • Protocol and statistical analysis plan · May 27, 2016
  • Informed consent form · Feb 20, 2019

Documents are hosted by the registry — open the source record to download them.

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No

10

Updates

Tracking since Sep 25, 2026
No changes since tracking began. The registry record was last updated on Sep 17, 2025, before this site started recording changes on Sep 25, 2026. Its history is on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗
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Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT02925156
Lead sponsor
Loyola University
Collaborators
National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK)
Responsible party
Amy Luke (Professor, Loyola University) — Principal investigator
First posted
Oct 5, 2016
Start date
Jul 16, 2008
Primary completion
May 20, 2024
Completion
May 20, 2024
Results posted
Sep 17, 2025
Last update
Sep 17, 2025

Study contacts

Amy Luke, PhD
principal investigator · Loyola University

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
View the source record on ClinicalTrials.gov ↗

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