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CompletedNCT04887142VIRIONUMUpdated Apr 28, 2026

Predictors of Disease Severity in COVID-19 Patients

An observational study in COVID-19, sponsored by Zeljko Mijailovic. Completed at 5 sites in 5 countries. Open to participants aged 18 Years and older. Per ClinicalTrials.gov, last updated 2026-04-28.

Sponsored by Zeljko Mijailovic · Observational

Study type
Observational
Model
Case-control
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
818
Ages
18 Years and older
Sex
All
01

Study summary

The primary goal of the VIRIONUM project is to analyze the association of clinical, socio-demographic characteristics of patients and their genetic polymorphism, inflammatory and other biochemical markers with disease progression and death in subjects with COVID-19 disease. The research is an observational, cohort study with nested-case control design, including adult, male and female COVID-19 inpatients. Primary dependent variable will be outcome of disease, defined as discharge from the hospital or death. The outcomes and putative risk factors will be analyzed using binary logistic regressions. The proposed multi- and inter-disciplinary study should provide additional scientific evidence about risk factors for the development of severe forms of the disease and the COVID-19-related death.

Read the detailed description

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is etiological agent of heterogeneous corona-virus disease 19 (COVID-19), which clinical condition range from asymptomatic or mild to critically severe with high odds for fatal outcome. Since the pathophysiological pathways of COVID-19 disease development are not fully elucidated, resulting in repeated changes in treatment plans, there is an unmet need for more research into genetic, biochemical, immunological, and clinical predictive indicators of better outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

Aim: The VIRIONUM project's main aim is to investigate the relation between genetic polymorphisms, inflammatory and other biochemical markers, and disease severity and mortality in COVID-19-infected hospitalized patients.

Method and patients: The observational nested case-control clinical study will be conducted in at least 1019 COVID-19 patients. The genetic polymorphisms (ACE2, IFNL3/4 and TMPRSS2), serum concentration of soluble ACE2 and the pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, blood concentration of common inflammatory and other biomarkers, peripheral blood mononuclear leukocyte (PBMC) phenotype, demographic and clinical risk factors will be monitored as independent variables, while the dependent variables will be the outcome of the disease and the severity of the clinical condition. Genotyping will be performed by Real-Time PCR method, and serum concentrations of ACE2 and pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines by ELISA method, and PBMC phenotype by flow cytometry. The disease severity will be assessed according to WHO criteria.

Expected results: The findings of this clinical study will contribute to understanding of significant genetic, biochemical, and clinical determinants of severity and lethal outcomes in COVID-19 patients, as well as, creation of set of recommendations for individuals at higher risk - future, evidence-based, targeted and individualized approach.

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Conditions studied

  • COVID-19

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Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Inpatients
  • Risk Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Observational Study
03

Who can participate

Ages eligible
18 Years and older
Sexes eligible
All
Accepts healthy volunteers
No
Sampling method
Non-probability sample

Study population

Adult patients of both sexes with different socio-demographic and clinical characteristics, who were hospitalized due to COVID-19. The decision on hospitalization and further treatment of patients is at the discretion of the attending physicians. All participants will be prospectively followed during their hospital stay. Patients will be included in the study if they are at least 18 years old and if they give voluntary written consent to participate. Pregnant and breastfeeding women, patients transferred from other hospitals and those who die during the first 24 hours of hospitalization will be excluded. In this study, stratification of participants according to age to those older than 65 years and younger is provided only for the purposes of statistical data processing and analyse.

Inclusion criteria

  • Adult age, 18 years old or more
  • Male or female
  • Hospitalization for COVID-19 after confirmation by SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen test or RT-PCR
  • Voluntary written consent of the subject to participate

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Pregnant and breastfeeding women
  • Fatal outcome during the first 24 hours of hospitalization
  • Inability to collect the necessary study data
  • Declining of the subject to voluntary participate in the study
04

Study design

Observational model
Case-control
Time perspective
Prospective
Enrollment
818 participants (actual)
Patient registry
No
Biospecimen retention
Samples with dna

Groups and cohorts

  • The discharged subjects

    The COVID-19 inpatients treated with standard care who survived the disease and discharged from hospital.

    Other: Standard of health care

  • The deceased subjects

    The COVID-19 inpatients treated with standard care who died from the disease.

    Other: Standard of health care

Interventions

  • OtherStandard of health care

    The patients in this observational study will be exposed to the standard health care interventions according to the hospital diagnostic and treatment protocols and procedures and clinical judgment of the treating physicians.

05

What researchers measure

Primary outcomes

  1. Number of Participants with Fatal Outcome

    Case fatality ratio will be calculated as the proportion of patients who died from all causes (all-cause mortality) compared to the total number of patients

    Time frame: Up to 6 weeks from recruitment to hospital discharge or death

Secondary outcomes

  1. Ordinal Scale for Clinical Improvement

    Patients' COVID-19 severity and clinical improvement will be assessed according to the recommendations of World Health Organization using Ordinal Scale for Clinical Improvement and the patient state will be classified as mild (score 4 or less) or severe (score 5 or more).

    Time frame: Up to 6 weeks from recruitment to hospital discharge or death

06

Study locations

5 sites
  • Spitali Amerikan
    Tirana, Albania
  • General Hospital "Prim. dr. Abdulah Nakaš"
    Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • KBC Rijeka, University of Rijeka
    Rijeka, Croatia
  • University of Montenegro, Faculty of Medicine
    Podgorica, Montenegro
  • Faculty of Medical Sciences, University Clinical Center Kragujevac
    Kragujevac, Srbija 34000, Serbia
07

References and documents

Individual participant data

Plan to share: No

No publications or documents are linked to this record.

08

Registry details

Key details

Study ID
NCT04887142
Lead sponsor
Zeljko Mijailovic
Responsible party
Zeljko Mijailovic (Principal Investigator, University of Kragujevac) — Sponsor-investigator
First posted
May 14, 2021
Start date
Apr 4, 2020
Primary completion
May 12, 2023
Completion
Feb 29, 2024
Last update
Apr 28, 2026

Study contacts

Dejan Baskic, MD PHD
study chair · Faculty of Medical Sciences

Oversight

Data monitoring committee
No
FDA-regulated drug
No
FDA-regulated device
No
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